3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 4

Hey there, sports fans! It’s that time again, and the excitement is palpable. Thursday Night Football is upon us in Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season, and we’ve got some player prop bets that are too good to pass up. Whether you’re a die-hard football fanatic or just looking to spice up your daily fantasy football lineup on FanDuel, we’ve got you covered.

But first, a quick note: Keep in mind that betting lines and game projections can change. Plus, the weather can throw a curveball into our predictions. So, stay tuned for updates closer to game time.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Any Time Touchdown (+145)

Thursday night kicks off with a classic NFC North showdown as the Detroit Lions visit the Green Bay Packers. It’s a game with a tight 1.5-point spread in favor of the road Lions and a modest 45.5-point total. But what really caught our eye is the potential for Amon-Ra St. Brown to find the end zone.

ARSB is more than just your run-of-the-mill wide receiver; he’s elite. With a 28.9% target share, 30.8% air yards share, 8.3 average depth of target (aDOT), and a whopping 57.1% red zone target share, he’s the clear number-one option in the Lions’ passing offense. Plus, he’s on the field for a staggering 87.3% of snaps and runs a route on 89.6% of dropbacks—talk about a workhorse!

So far this season, he’s already amassed 27 targets, 21 receptions, 275 yards, and a single touchdown in Week 1. While the Packers’ defense has been stingy against wide receivers, they haven’t faced an aerial assault quite like ARSB and the Lions.

With a team-high 57.1% red zone target share, if the Lions are going to score multiple touchdowns, you can bet ARSB will be in the mix. So, keep an eye on him for an anytime touchdown at +145.

Jared Goff Under 253.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Now, let’s talk about the Lions’ quarterback, Jared Goff. He’s had a decent start this season, but this week’s matchup doesn’t look too promising for him.

The Packers’ defense has been stout, allowing just 657 passing yards this season, or 219 yards per game. While this might not be entirely representative, Goff’s home-road splits don’t bode well for him this week. In 2022, he averaged 274.7 passing yards per game at home but only 245.8 yards on the road. It’s a trend that carries over to 2021 as well.

The Packers seem to have his number, limiting him to an average of 180.5 yards per game in 2022 and 242.0 yards per game in 2021. With the Packers’ defense applying pressure and Goff’s history in mind, it’s unlikely he’ll rack up a ton of yards.

The Lions have been leaning more on their running game, with a 53.54% pass-play percentage, ranking 23rd in the league. Given the potential return of running back David Montgomery for the Lions and the Packers’ struggles against opposing running backs, we might see more ground action.

In this scenario, the path of least resistance for the Lions’ offense would be through the rushing game, limiting Goff’s opportunities to pile up passing yards. So, consider taking the under on 253.5 passing yards for Goff this week.

Romeo Doubs Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Last but not least, let’s discuss Romeo Doubs and his receiving yards. The Packers’ offense could see some changes this week, and it might impact Doubs’ performance.

Two key play-makers, running back Aaron Jones and wide receiver Christian Watson, are expected to return. While Doubs has a team-high 21.1% target share this season, it’s important to note that his role has expanded due to injuries.

Looking back to last season, Doubs had a 15.7% target share, Watson had a 15.2% target share, and Jones had a 13.4% target share. While Doubs led this group, it wasn’t a massive gap.

The Lions’ defense has been solid against wide receivers, allowing only 375 total receiving yards, the sixth-fewest in the league.

Considering the return of Jones and Watson, it’s likely that the Packers will focus on integrating them into the offense, potentially reducing Doubs’ involvement.

So, keep an eye on Doubs, and consider taking the under on his receiving yards at 39.5.

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Now, armed with these player prop insights, go forth and make your Thursday Night Football experience even more electrifying. And remember, always gamble responsibly!