Unlocking Value in 2024 NFL Best Ball Drafts: Running Back Sleepers to Watch
In the realm of fantasy football, especially when it comes to Best Ball drafts, uncovering those late-round gems can significantly tilt the scales in your favor. As we dive into the 2024 season, it’s crucial to identify players who are flying under the radar yet possess the potential to outperform their current average draft position.
Today, we’re zeroing in on running backs – a position that frequently becomes a goldmine for value picks due to the volatile nature of NFL backfields. Let’s dissect some sleeper candidates who are poised to deliver outsized returns this season.
Jaylen Warren: The Underappreciated Steal
- Current ADP: RB26
- 2023 Fantasy Performance: Averaged 11 fantasy points per game, matching teammate Najee Harris.
- Key Strength: Excellency in runs outside the tackles, boasting a 5.4 yards per carry in such attempts.
- 2023 Stats to Note: Ranked fourth in rushing yards over expectation, signaling big-play ability.
- PPR Appeal: Saw the fifth most targets among running backs last year, indicating a valuable role in the passing game.
Insight: With Arthur Smith’s system favoring runs outside the tackles – a zone where Warren thrived last season – his efficiency should translate into more significant opportunities. His adeptness in both the running and passing game positions him as a prime target for those looking to capitalize on draft value.
Gus Edwards: The Chargers’ Ground and Pound Engine
- Current ADP: RB38
- 2023 Highlight: Amassed 13 touchdowns, showcasing elite goal-line efficiency.
- Role Clarity: Pegged as the workhorse in a Chargers offense that’s leaning towards a run-heavy approach.
- Volume Security: Despite skepticism, the Chargers’ off-season moves indicate a strong commitment to Edwards as their leading back.
Insight: In fantasy football, volume is king, and Edwards is slated to inherit a lion’s share of the carries for the Chargers. With his knack for finding the end zone and a clear path to workload dominance, Edwards represents a high-upside selection at his current draft position.
Chuba Hubbard: Poised for a Breakout?
- Current ADP: RB39
- 2023 Context: Benefited from a lack of significant additions to the Panthers’ backfield during free agency.
- Offensive Line Investments: The Panthers have fortified their line, signaling a commitment to enhancing the run game.
- 2023 Performance: Demonstrated explosive ability with 24 impactful plays, despite a struggling offensive line.
Insight: Hubbard’s situation in Carolina is ripe for a breakout, especially with improvements along the offensive line and a potential increase in volume. His effectiveness in a challenging 2023 season hints at untapped potential that could flourish with an enhanced supporting cast.
D’Onta Foreman: The Under-the-Radar Workhorse
- Current ADP: Deep sleeper territory
- 2023 Reflection: Proved his mettle with multiple 100-yard games, outshining counterparts in comparable or superior situations.
- Fit with Browns: Aligns well with the team’s ground game philosophy, potentially stepping into a significant role early in the season due to Nick Chubb‘s recovery timeline.
- Goal-Line Efficiency: Exhibits traits of a powerful, short-yardage back capable of capitalizing on scoring opportunities.
Insight: Foreman’s blend of size, power, and proven production in limited opportunities presents a low-risk, high-reward proposition for fantasy managers. As someone who could inherit an expanded role in an offense looking to rebound, he’s worth a late flier in drafts.
Drafting Strategy Takeaways:
- Look Beyond ADP: The true value often lies in players overlooked by the majority. Assessing roles, system fits, and potential for increased workload can uncover hidden gems.
- Volume & Opportunity: Prioritize players in situations where the path to significant touches is clear, either due to their skill set aligning with the team’s offensive philosophy or due to a lack of competition.
- Versatility Matters: Players contributing in multiple facets of the game (rushing and receiving) offer higher floors and ceilings, making them particularly valuable in PPR formats.
As we navigate the pre-draft landscape, keeping these insights at the forefront can guide us toward making savvy, value-driven selections that bolster our Best Ball rosters. Stay tuned for further analysis and uncovering more sleeper picks as draft season progresses.
