PGA Best Bets for THE PLAYERS Championship

Here are our top picks for the week, with in-depth analysis on why each player is a smart bet. We’ve used bullet points to highlight key points and make it easy to digest.

1. Scottie Scheffler (+500 to Win, Top 5: Strong Value)

• Why He’s a Top Play: As the defending champion (2024: -20, 2023: -17), Scheffler thrives at TPC Sawgrass. His standout performance comes from inside 125 yards—a critical range here, where 15% of approach shots fell in 2024—and his recent gains around the green add versatility.
• Key Insights:
  
  • Approach Dominance: This course has ranked top 2 for approach inside 150 yards in four of the last five years, perfectly suiting Scheffler’s skill set.
  • Current Form: A T11 finish last week keeps him sharp, backed by a perfect 25/25 cut-made record and a 52% top-5 rate over his last 25 starts.
  • Injury Status: No health concerns, meaning he’s primed to compete at his peak.
• Betting Angle: At +500 to win, his odds might not fully reflect his course fit. A top-5 bet offers excellent value with his 88% top-25 consistency.

2. Collin Morikawa (Top 10: +135, Matchup vs. Rory McIlroy)

• Why He’s a Top Play: Morikawa’s elite tee-to-green play and pinpoint driving accuracy align with TPC Sawgrass’s narrow 31-yard fairways and small greens. His ability to score on par 5s, like the 16th, gives him an edge.
• Key Insights:
  
  • Stats That Fit: He leads the field in tee-to-green over the last 24 rounds, with top-tier ball-striking and solid par-5 scoring—key for this layout.
  • Hot Streak: A T2 finish last week shows he’s peaking, with cuts made in 24 of 26 events and a 62% top-25 rate.
  • Matchup Edge: Rory McIlroy’s recent approach struggles and poor driving accuracy (near the bottom of the field) make him vulnerable. Morikawa’s steadiness trumps Rory’s T19 here last year.
• Betting Angle: Top 10 at +135 is a steal given his form, and he’s a lock in a head-to-head against McIlroy’s inconsistency.

3. Justin Thomas (Top 20: -110, Value Play)

• Why He’s a Top Play: Thomas’s top-tier tee-to-green and ball-striking skills make him a sleeper despite a mixed course history (T33, 60, cut in his last three starts). His proven upside—he won here in 2021 at -14—suggests he’s due for a rebound.
• Key Insights:
  
  • Ball-Striking Fit: His strengths match the course’s emphasis on approach and total driving, where distance (288 yards in 2024) takes a backseat.
  • Injury Status: No physical setbacks reported, so his recent T36 finish indicates form, not fitness, is the variable.
  • Hidden Value: A 52% top-25 rate over 27 starts shows reliability, and his past win proves he can conquer this track.
• Betting Angle: Top 20 at -110 is a safe bet with upside, outperforming his +2200 outright odds for value seekers.

4. Tommy Fleetwood (Top 20: +115, Matchup vs. Sungjae Im)

• Why He’s a Top Play: Fleetwood’s consistency at TPC Sawgrass (one missed cut in five years, all finishes T40 or better) and strong tee-to-green play make him a reliable pick. His putting may lag, but it’s less critical here.
• Key Insights:
  
  • Course Comfort: Recent finishes of T35, T27, and T22 show he handles this layout well.
  • Form Check: A T11 last week, with cuts made in 29 of 31 starts and a 65% top-25 rate, keeps him in the mix. No injuries noted.
  • Matchup vs. Im: Sungjae Im’s T31, T6, T55 history is decent, but his T19 last week and less consistent tee-to-green play (25/35 cuts) favor Fleetwood.
• Betting Angle: Top 20 at +115 is a bargain for his track record, and he’s a sharp matchup play against Im’s ups and downs.