NFL Best Bets Vikings vs. Rams – Wild Card Playoffs
The Wild Card Playoffs are here, and today we’re breaking down the Vikings vs. Rams matchup. This game features a compelling clash between the Vikings’ strong rushing attack and the Rams’ reliance on Matthew Stafford’s experience and passing game. Below are the best bets for today, with detailed insights and analysis to give you an edge.
Check out our Free Projections
Prop Projections | Prizepicks Projections | Underdog Projections
Bet #1: Rams +3.5 (-130)
Suggested Bet: Rams +3.5 (-130 FanDuel)
Key Insights:
- Matthew Stafford’s Edge Against the Blitz: The Vikings’ defense blitzes at the second-highest rate in the league but struggles to pressure or sack the quarterback consistently. Stafford excels against the blitz, boasting a 67.2% completion rate and 10.2 yards per attempt when pressured.
- Vikings’ Weakness in Pass Defense: Minnesota allows the most receptions to wide receivers this season, which sets up Stafford’s dynamic duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua for success.
- Playoff Experience: Stafford’s playoff experience could be a decisive factor. He’s shown the ability to rise to the occasion in high-pressure games, unlike Vikings QB Sam Darnold, who lacks comparable experience.
Why It’s a Best Bet: The Rams have a potent passing attack and the tools to exploit Minnesota’s weaknesses in coverage. At +3.5, the Rams can cover even in a close loss.
Bet #2: Over 48 Total Points (-110)
Suggested Bet: Over 48 (-110 DraftKings)
Key Insights:
- High-Scoring History: The last meeting between these two teams ended with a 30-20 Rams win, totaling 50 points.
- Offensive Matchups Favor Scoring:
- The Vikings’ rushing attack ranks 5th in offensive efficiency, while the Rams’ defense ranks 26th overall in DVOA. Expect Aaron Jones to lead a productive ground game.
- The Rams, meanwhile, rank in the top half of the league in passing efficiency and face a Vikings secondary prone to giving up big plays.
- Close Game Expected: With the spread at 3.5, oddsmakers project a competitive game. Competitive playoff matchups often result in late scoring drives as teams scramble to secure the win.
Why It’s a Best Bet: Both teams have clear paths to scoring, and a game script featuring Stafford slinging the ball and the Vikings pounding the run points to the over hitting.
Bet #3: Matthew Stafford Over 21.5 Pass Completions (-115)
Suggested Bet: Over 21.5 Pass Completions (-115 DraftKings)
Key Insights:
- Vikings’ Defensive Style: Minnesota’s heavy reliance on zone coverage and blitzing creates opportunities for short, quick passes—perfect for Stafford to rack up completions.
- Last Game vs. Minnesota: In their last matchup, Stafford completed 25 passes on 34 attempts, easily surpassing this line.
- Increased Passing Volume: With the Vikings’ strong run defense (2nd in EPA allowed per carry), the Rams will likely abandon the run early and lean on Stafford’s arm.
Why It’s a Best Bet: The game script and defensive tendencies favor a high-volume passing game for Stafford, making this a strong play.
Bet #4: Cooper Kupp Over 5.5 Receptions (-120)
Suggested Bet: Over 5.5 Receptions (-120 DraftKings)
Key Insights:
- Slot Advantage: Kupp spends a significant portion of his snaps in the slot, where he’ll likely face Murphy Jr., who has struggled in coverage against top-tier slot receivers.
- Minnesota’s Coverage Issues: The Vikings allow the most receptions to wide receivers and struggle against quick, high-percentage throws.
- Reliable Target: Kupp has been Stafford’s go-to option, logging at least 5 receptions in 8 of his last 10 games when healthy.
Why It’s a Best Bet: Kupp’s role as a volume receiver combined with Minnesota’s defensive vulnerabilities makes this line very achievable.
Bet #5: Aaron Jones Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Suggested Bet: Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110 FanDuel)
Key Insights:
- Rams’ Struggles Against the Run: The Rams rank 26th in defensive DVOA and 20th in success rate allowed on rushing plays, making this a soft matchup for Jones.
- Volume Leader: Jones leads the Vikings’ backfield with 85% of rush attempts, ensuring ample opportunities to hit this line.
- Run Game Focus: Expect the Vikings to rely heavily on the run to control the pace, especially with Sam Darnold under center.
Why It’s a Best Bet: Jones has the talent and volume to exploit the Rams’ defensive inefficiencies, making this a solid play.
Final Thoughts
The Vikings vs. Rams Wild Card matchup offers plenty of intriguing betting angles. From Stafford’s passing to Aaron Jones’ rushing potential, these bets are grounded in solid data and matchup-specific insights.
Maximize your betting edge with Oddsjam!
👉 Unlock your full potential with industry-leading tools:
- Promo Finder
- Arbitrage Bets
- Positive Expected Value (+EV) Bets
- Bet Tracker
- Free coaching sessions and a 7-day free trial!
Let’s cash some tickets and enjoy a thrilling playoff game!
