As we gear up for the exciting Christmas Day NBA matchups, we’re diving into the action on Friday with six NBA games on the schedule. All six games are part of FanDuel’s main slate for NBA DFS, which tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, we’ll not only explore some of the best bets for the day on the slate.
NBA Best Bets
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
If you’re looking for an enticing bet, consider the under on the total points for the game, set at 230.5 (-110). The Philadelphia 76ers have been impressive this season, excelling in various aspects, particularly on the defensive end. They currently rank 4th in adjusted defensive rating, according to Dunks & Threes. Additionally, their pace is close to the league average, standing at 11th.
On the other side, the Toronto Raptors have struggled offensively recently, posting scores of only 104, 114, and 104 in their last three games. Facing the elite defense of the Sixers is unlikely to boost Toronto’s offensive woes. For the season, the Raptors rank 21st in effective field goal percentage and 22nd in adjusted offensive rating.
Our model strongly favors the under in this matchup, projecting it to hit 72.2% of the time. Their projected total for the game is just 218.7 points, indicating a potential defensive battle.
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Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat
In another intriguing matchup, consider betting on the Atlanta Hawks to win straight up with the Hawks Moneyline at (+100) odds. The Miami Heat, despite their 16-12 record, have shown signs of regression compared to their performance in last season’s NBA Finals.
Miami currently sits 17th in adjusted net rating (+0.4) and has a 12-16 record against the spread. They rank around the league average in both adjusted offensive and defensive ratings, standing 16th and 15th, respectively.
What’s more, the Heat will be without Jimmy Butler, a crucial piece of their lineup. In games where Butler has been absent this season, the Heat’s offensive and defensive ratings have suffered significantly.
The Hawks, although struggling against the spread, boast a slightly better adjusted net rating at +0.7. With key players expected to be available, Atlanta, who performs well on the road, could exploit Miami’s vulnerability from beyond the arc. The Hawks score 35.0% of their points from three-pointers, ranking seventh in the league in this category.
Given that the game is nearly a pick’em, Atlanta appears to be the favorable side in this matchup.
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NBA Prop Bets
Nikola Jokic to Record a Triple-Double (+130)
Nikola Jokic, despite his exceptional standards, has experienced a minor dip in form recently. Over his last three games, he’s averaged 21.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 8.3 assists. While these numbers are still impressive, they fall short of his season averages of 26.5 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 9.3 assists.
Jokic’s matchup against the Brooklyn Nets provides an opportunity for him to bounce back. Betting on Jokic to record a triple-double at +130 odds is an enticing proposition. His rebound and points props are both within reach, with his assist prop set at 9.5.
The Nets’ defense allows centers to accumulate assists at the league average rate, and when they faced a similar center, Joel Embiid, he recorded nine assists in a game this season, a notable feat given his usual assist numbers.
With a narrow 4.5-point spread for this game, there’s minimal risk of Jokic seeing reduced minutes due to a blowout, making this prop even more appealing.
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Saddiq Bey Over 1.5 Made Threes (-180)
Saddiq Bey of the Atlanta Hawks presents an attractive prop bet. He’s been receiving significant minutes, averaging 37.5 per game over his last nine outings. Bey’s three-point shooting has been a key part of his game, with an average of 6.4 three-point attempts and 2.0 makes per game during that span.
Facing the Miami Heat, who allow a high rate of three-point attempts, Bey could capitalize on this matchup. For the season, Atlanta ranks eighth in three-point attempts per game, and a significant portion of their points comes from beyond the arc.
Our model projects Bey to make 2.6 of 7.3 three-point attempts in this game, making the over 1.5 made threes prop (-180) a solid bet.
If you’re feeling bold, consider taking a shot on Bey to make 3+ threes at +180 odds for a potentially higher payout.
