NBA Best Bets Tuesday 3/4/25
Hey, hoops fans! Welcome back to the action on this fine Tuesday, March 4, 2025. We’ve got a loaded nine-game NBA slate to break down, and I’m here to give you the rundown on the best betting opportunities today.
Ready? Let’s roll!
Check out our Free Prop Projections
Prop Projections | Prizepicks Projections | Underdog Projections
Today’s slate is packed with injury news and intriguing matchups, so we’re focusing on players who stand to benefit from usage bumps and favorable situations.
I’ve sifted through the data, injury reports, Vegas lines, and player stats, to spotlight the best bets. Here’s what I’m locking in for March 4th.
Pascal Siakam (IND) – Over 7.5 Rebounds
Matchup: Houston Rockets at Indiana Pacers (-4.0, 229.5 total)
The Rockets are banged up and on a back-to-back, with Fred VanVleet already ruled out (ankle) and guys like Amen Thompson, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun listed as questionable. Houston’s been shaky defending the rim lately, and with their pace ranked 20th, this game could turn into a grind where rebounds are up for grabs.
Siakam’s facing Jabari Smith Jr., and Houston’s paint-heavy shot profile means plenty of chances for boards off misses. Siakam’s averaging 7.3 rebounds per game, but his recent form (last three games: -0.6) suggests he’s due for a bounce-back, especially with Indiana’s offense clicking (8th in PPG).
With Houston potentially shorthanded, Siakam’s role as a rebounding forward gets amplified. The Pacers love scoring in the paint (Houston’s weakness), and Siakam’s positioning near the rim should net him extra opportunities.
At 33 minutes per game, he’s got the floor time to rack up stats. This feels like a 9-10 rebound night waiting to happen.
Suggested Bet: Pascal Siakam Over 7.5 Rebounds
Steph Curry (GSW) – Over 26.5 Points
Matchup: Golden State Warriors at New York Knicks (-4.0, 232.0 total)
Curry’s questionable with an ankle issue, but if he plays, this matchup screams big night. The Knicks rank 24th in effective FG% allowed on pull-up jumpers and 27th in scoring percentage defended on those shots—perfect for Curry’s pull-up game.
Golden State’s been rolling (8-2 in their last 10), and while the Knicks are solid at home (7-3 in their last 10), their size advantage with Karl-Anthony Towns (questionable, personal) might not matter if Curry’s bombing from deep. He’s averaging 24.1 PPG but has spiked to 33.3 over his last three (9.2 PPG boost).
Curry’s cleared 26.5 in six of his last ten games, including 31 and 27 against the Knicks this season. New York’s perimeter defense has slipped lately, and with a 232.0 total, there’s room for a shootout.
If Towns sits, the Knicks lean smaller, giving Curry more space to cook. At $9,400 on DraftKings, he’s pricey, but the matchup justifies it. I’m eyeing his 4.5 threes prop too, could be a bonus sprinkle.
Suggested Bet: Steph Curry Over 26.5 Points
Damian Lillard (MIL) – Over 25.5 Points
Matchup: Milwaukee Bucks (-6.0) at Atlanta Hawks (243.0 total)
Atlanta’s been bleeding points from deep, especially against pull-up jumpers, and who’s better at that than Dame? Milwaukee ranks third in pull-up jumper frequency, and Lillard’s usage (27%) and recent form (25.4 PPG) make him a prime candidate to exploit this.
The Hawks’ transition offense stinks, but their defense in the paint has tightened up—pushing Milwaukee to lean on outside shooting. Giannis is probable (questionable earlier), but even with him, Dame’s pick-and-roll mastery should shine in this high-paced game (102.2 projected pace).
Lillard’s a torchbearer against shaky perimeter defenses, and Atlanta’s struggles from deep (28th in 3P% allowed) set him up nicely. He’s got a usage bump with Bobby Portis suspended and Kyle Kuzma doubtful (ankle), meaning more shots for Dame.
At 36.4 minutes per game, he’s got the runway to hit 30+ if the Bucks rain threes. Points + assists could work too, but I’m zeroing in on scoring.
Suggested Bet: Damian Lillard Over 25.5 Points
Darius Garland (CLE) – Over 21.5 Points
Matchup: Cleveland Cavaliers (-12.0) at Chicago Bulls (245.5 total)
Evan Mobley’s out (rest), and that’s a game-changer for Garland. Without Mobley this season, he’s averaged 25 PPG across six games, hitting the over in five (83% clip). Chicago’s defense is middling (7th in D-Rating), and with Nikola Vucevic out (calf) and Josh Giddey questionable (quad), the Bulls’ interior and guard play could falter.
Cleveland’s pace (9th) and top-tier offense (1st in PPG) should keep this game flowing, giving Garland plenty of chances to eat. Garland’s usage jumps without Mobley, and his recent dip (21.2 PPG, -4.7 last three) masks how lethal he is in this spot.
Chicago’s covered big spreads lately (5 of 6), hinting at a closer game where Garland logs heavy minutes. His 3.7 three-point makes without Mobley also tempts a 2.5 threes prop bet.
Suggested Bet: Darius Garland Over 21.5 Points
Devin Vassell (SAS) – Under 16.5 Points
Matchup: Brooklyn Nets at San Antonio Spurs (-4.5, 225.0 total)
Brooklyn’s elite at defending pull-up threes, ranking among the league’s best, and Vassell’s game leans on spot-up and pull-up looks. He’s averaging 15.4 PPG, but against a Nets defense that slows the pace (30th) and clamps the perimeter (9th in PAPG), this feels like a trap spot.
Stephon Castle’s questionable (thumb), but even with a usage bump, Vassell’s minutes (30.3) and efficiency don’t scream breakout against this matchup.
Vassell’s scored 10 points in 34 minutes against Brooklyn earlier this season, and the Nets’ defensive scheme neutralizes his strengths. San Antonio’s at home off a big win, but Brooklyn’s grit could keep this low-scoring (I’m leaning under 228.5 too).
Suggested Bet: Devin Vassell Under 16.5 Points
Zion Williamson (NOP) – Over 24.5 Points
Matchup: New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers (-8.0, 231.5 total)
The Lakers have been sneaky-good defending the restricted area, but Zion’s a bulldozer who thrives there. Rui Hachimura’s out (knee), leaving Dorian Finney-Smith and Jaxson Hayes to handle him, good luck.
New Orleans ranks 2nd in paint points allowed recently, but the Lakers are shifting to a perimeter game, opening the lane for Zion. He’s averaging 24.3 PPG, and his last outing against LA (last year) was a blowup.
Zion’s usage (32%) and physicality make him a mismatch nightmare. The Lakers’ home dominance (119.8 implied total) might not matter if Zion feasts inside. At 28.4 minutes (+1.8 recently), he’s got the juice to hit 25-30 if the Pelicans keep it close (psycho alert: +8.5 feels high).
Suggested Bet: Zion Williamson Over 24.5 Points
There you have it, my NBA Best Bets for today’s slate! From Siakam’s rebounding to Zion’s paint dominance, these picks are built to cash.
Want to take your betting game to the next level? Maximize your betting and fantasy picks with Oddsjam. It’s packed with tools like Promo Finder, Arbitrage Bets, Positive EV Bets, and a Bet Tracker, plus 100+ tutorial videos and free coaching sessions.
Sign up for a 7-day free trial and unlock your betting potential with industry-leading tech.
Let’s cash some tickets together, hit that link and get in the game!