NBA Best Bets Tuesday 12/31/24
As we close out 2024, it’s time to look at some key matchups and highlight the NBA best bets for today’s slate. Whether you’re looking for unders to take advantage of mismatches or overs on reliable props, I’ve got you covered with insights for today’s games. Let’s break down the best plays on the board.
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Prop Projections | Prizepicks Projections | Underdog Projections
Scottie Barnes Under 7.5 Assists (-125)
Matchup: Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics
- Spread/Total: Celtics -17, 233 total
Analysis
This game screams blowout. The Celtics, one of the best defenses in the league, are hosting a Raptors team that is short-handed, missing RJ Barrett and potentially Grady Dick. Without Barrett, Scotty Barnes has been forced into a higher-usage role, but surprisingly, his assist numbers take a hit.
- With Barrett: Averaging 7.86 assists per game on 15.4 potential assists.
- Without Barrett: Only 5 assists per game on 10.4 potential assists.
Boston’s defense is well-equipped to handle Barnes, particularly with their ability to switch and contest shots effectively. Add in the likelihood of reduced minutes for Barnes in a blowout, and this line feels too high. He’s gone under this number in all five games without Barrett this season and hasn’t exceeded 8 assists in his last six outings overall.
Suggested Bet: Scotty Barnes Under 7.5 Assists (-125)
Mason Plumlee Under 17.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)
Matchup: Memphis Grizzlies @ Phoenix Suns
- Spread/Total: Suns -5.5, 235 total
Analysis
With Jusuf Nurkić out, Plumlee has seen a slight uptick in minutes, averaging 24-26 per game. However, his role remains extremely limited, focusing on low-usage putbacks and rebounds.
- Plumlee has gone under this line in 6 of 8 games without Nurkić, including his last 6 straight.
- Averaging just 4.3 field goal attempts per game and hasn’t exceeded 14 combined points + rebounds in these six games.
Phoenix’s offensive focus is on their big three—Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and potentially Devin Booker. Plumlee becomes an afterthought in the offense, and with both teams likely deploying small-ball lineups at times, his minutes could be capped. Memphis’s defense may struggle overall, but Plumlee’s lack of involvement makes this under a strong play.
Suggested Bet: Mason Plumlee Under 17.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)
Why These Bets Work
Both of these plays lean into key factors:
- Blowout Risk: Scotty Barnes may see limited minutes if Boston dominates as expected.
- Limited Role: Mason Plumlee’s usage remains too low to justify this number, even with Nurkić out.
- Team Trends: Boston’s defensive strength and Phoenix’s reliance on stars create clear paths for these unders to hit.
Final Thoughts
Two strong under plays to close out the year. As always, keep an eye on injury updates and lineup changes throughout the day—this is the NBA, after all. For added plays, follow my updates on Discord or X.
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