NBA Best Bets Thursday 1/2/25

The first NBA slate of the new year brings plenty of betting opportunities across six intriguing matchups. After diving into team stats, injury reports, and game trends, I’ve highlighted the top bets for today’s slate. Whether you’re backing sides, totals, or player props, here’s everything you need to know to make the most of tonight’s action.

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Celtics (-4) vs. Timberwolves

Suggested Bet: Celtics -4

Boston enters this matchup looking to bounce back after losing three of their last four games. They face a Minnesota team that has been competitive recently but still lacks the overall talent and depth of the Celtics. Key injury notes include Jaylen Brown (questionable) and Kristaps Porzingis (questionable). If Brown plays, Boston’s edge grows even stronger.

Why I like the Celtics here:

Boston ranks 3rd in offensive rating and has tightened their interior defense over the past 10 games (58.9% opponent FG% at the rim).
Minnesota is 21st in pace, which plays into Boston’s ability to control tempo.
The Celtics are simply too talented to stay in a slump. Expect them to cover the modest spread.

Indiana Pacers Moneyline (+108) vs. Miami Heat

Suggested Bet: Pacers Moneyline

The Pacers are at home against a Miami team playing on the second night of a back-to-back. While the Heat cashed as favorites last night, Indiana’s rested legs and uptempo style (7th in pace) could give them the edge.

Why I’m backing Indiana:

Miami ranks 27th in pace and struggles to keep up with high-scoring teams like Indiana.
Indiana has scored over 112 points in seven of their last 10 games, and Miami’s defensive intensity may drop on a back-to-back.
The Heat rely heavily on Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, but Indiana’s balanced scoring and rest advantage make them a strong play.

Thunder (-9.5) vs. Clippers

Suggested Bet: Thunder -9.5

Oklahoma City has been on fire, winning nine of their last 10 games. The Clippers, on the other hand, have been inconsistent and face an OKC defense that ranks 1st in points allowed in the paint.

Key points:

OKC has dominated the season series, winning their last two matchups by 13 and 6 points.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to lead the Thunder with MVP-caliber play.
The Clippers’ reliance on interior scoring plays right into OKC’s strengths.

Bucks Team Total Over 115.5 Points (-110)

Suggested Bet: Bucks Team Total Over 115.5

Milwaukee is a 14-point favorite against a Brooklyn team that played last night. With Giannis Antetokounmpo probable and Dame Lillard healthy, the Bucks are poised to exploit Brooklyn’s shaky perimeter defense.

Why I like this play:

Milwaukee ranks 15th in offensive rating, but their recent games have shown an uptick in 3-point shooting.
Brooklyn ranks 27th in defensive rebounding, giving Milwaukee second-chance opportunities.
The Bucks have hit their team total in three of their last five games when Giannis and Dame play together.

Deandre Ayton Over 14.5 Points (-110)

Suggested Bet: Ayton Over 14.5 Points

The Lakers’ interior defense has struggled all season, especially if Anthony Davis (questionable) doesn’t suit up. Ayton should see plenty of opportunities in the paint against a team that ranks 26th in points allowed in the paint.

Why Ayton is a strong bet:

Ayton has scored 15+ points in six of his last 10 games when logging at least 30 minutes.
The Lakers allow opposing centers to shoot 58% from the field, among the worst in the league.
In a high-paced matchup, Ayton’s efficient scoring should shine.

Final Thoughts

This slate offers value across several bets, from sides and totals to player props. The Celtics should handle business against Minnesota, and Indiana offers an enticing moneyline play at plus odds. Don’t sleep on Milwaukee’s team total or Ayton’s scoring potential against the Lakers.

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