NBA Best Bets Saturday 12/28/24

The NBA slate tonight is packed with exciting matchups, and we’ve identified some of the best opportunities to maximize your bets. With a combination of player insights, statistical trends, and defensive matchups, these plays are primed to deliver value. Whether you’re playing PrizePicks, Underdog, or traditional sportsbooks, these picks should be on your radar.

Let’s dive into today’s NBA Best Bets, breaking down why each player and line makes sense.

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Best Bet #1: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 35.5 Points + Assists

Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Charlotte Hornets
Why It’s a Best Bet:

Hornets’ Defensive Woes: The Hornets rank near the bottom of the league in points and assists allowed to point guards, creating an ideal environment for SGA’s dual scoring and playmaking ability.
SGA’s Form: Over his last 10 games, Shai is averaging over 35 minutes per game, shooting an impressive 50% from the field, and generating nearly 12 potential assists per game.
Usage & Opportunity: SGA averages 31+ PPG and 6+ APG this season. With the Hornets’ struggles to contain guards, expect him to capitalize on his high usage and efficiency.
Past Matchups: Shai has consistently performed well against Charlotte, and their current defensive setup offers little resistance.

Best Bet #2: Bam Adebayo Over 23.5 Points + Assists

Matchup: Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
Why It’s a Best Bet:

Hawks’ Defense Against Centers: Atlanta ranks poorly in defending scoring centers, and Bam’s unique ability to operate as a point center adds significant value to this line.
Historical Success: Bam has cleared this line in three of his last four games against the Hawks.
Minutes & Efficiency: Adebayo is averaging over 33 minutes per game and shooting 50% from the field. His potential assists (8 per game) further bolster his playmaking upside.
Key Role: Miami relies heavily on Bam for initiating offense and finishing plays, making this a spot where he should thrive.

Suggested Bet:
Bam Adebayo Over 23.5 Points + Assists

Best Bet #3: Trae Young Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made

Matchup: Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
Why It’s a Best Bet:

Recent Hot Streak: Trae has exceeded this line in four consecutive games and has hit at least two threes in seven straight.
High Volume Shooter: Over his last 10 games, Trae is averaging 8+ three-point attempts per game, ensuring plenty of opportunity.
Heat’s Perimeter Defense: Despite ranking top 10 in three-point defense overall, Miami struggles specifically against high-volume guards like Trae, creating an edge.
Minutes Load: Trae’s 36+ minutes per game means he’ll have ample time to find his rhythm from deep.

Suggested Bet:
Trae Young Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made

Bonus Bet: LeBron James Over 34.5 Points + Assists

Matchup: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Sacramento Kings
Why It’s a Best Bet:

Consistent Performer: LeBron has exceeded this line in six of his last 10 games and in five of his last seven matchups against Sacramento.
Kings’ Defensive Weaknesses: Sacramento allows significant points and assists to power forwards, and LeBron is expected to exploit this matchup.
Extra Motivation: With his birthday around the corner, expect a vintage LeBron performance at home.
Playmaking Role: Operating as the Lakers’ primary facilitator, LeBron averages 15 potential assists per game, giving this line a strong foundation.

Suggested Bet:
LeBron James Over 34.5 Points + Assists

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