NBA Best Bets Monday 12/30/24
Welcome to today’s NBA Best Bets breakdown. We’ve got a loaded slate tonight with matchups full of opportunities to take advantage of player props and betting edges. After diving into all the data and matchups, I’ve identified the top bets for the evening. Let’s break them down, explain why these plays stand out, and maximize our chances for a winning night.
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James Harden Over 30.5 Points + Assists
- Game: Clippers at Pelicans
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Why This Bet?
- The Pelicans rank 30th against point guards in both points and assists allowed. Harden, who plays a primary ball-handling role, faces a defense tailor-made for his skill set.
- Without Kawhi Leonard and other key Clippers, Harden’s usage skyrockets. He’s averaging 34+ minutes per game and is taking 16 shots per contest, ensuring he’ll get the volume needed to hit this over.
- The Pelicans are also without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, leaving them shorthanded and vulnerable defensively.
- Suggested Bet: James Harden Over 30.5 Points + Assists
Christian Braun Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
- Game: Nuggets at Jazz
- Time: 9:00 PM ET
- Why This Bet?
- Braun has hit this mark in 22 of 29 games this season, a 76% success rate. Against the Jazz specifically, he’s 5-for-6 in his last meetings.
- Utah is ranked 28th in points allowed and 25th in assists allowed, making this a prime matchup for Braun to capitalize on both his scoring and playmaking abilities.
- Denver’s pace of play and Braun’s consistent minutes (30+ in recent games) set the stage for another strong performance.
- Suggested Bet: Christian Braun Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Tyrese Maxey Over 33.5 Points + Assists
- Game: 76ers at Trail Blazers
- Time: 10:00 PM ET
- Why This Bet?
- Maxey thrives in matchups against weak defenses, and the Trail Blazers rank bottom 10 in both points and assists allowed to guards.
- With Joel Embiid questionable, Maxey’s offensive role expands significantly. In similar situations this season, he’s averaged 37+ points and assists against bottom-tier defenses.
- Maxey has cashed this prop in three straight games and continues to show elite form as the Sixers’ offensive engine.
- Suggested Bet: Tyrese Maxey Over 33.5 Points + Assists
Klay Thompson Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
- Game: Mavericks at Kings
- Time: 10:00 PM ET
- Why This Bet?
- With Luka Doncic sidelined, Klay Thompson is thrust into a larger offensive role for Dallas. He’s playing increased minutes (30+ per game) and taking significantly more shots.
- Sacramento struggles defensively against shooting guards, ranking 25th in points allowed. Thompson’s ability to exploit these matchups makes him a strong bet to exceed this total.
- While his recent form has been inconsistent, the elevated volume and favorable matchup provide a perfect recipe for a breakout performance.
- Suggested Bet: Klay Thompson Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Kevin Huerter Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
- Game: Mavericks at Kings
- Time: 10:00 PM ET
- Why This Bet?
- Huerter has exceeded this total in seven of his last 10 games, averaging 16.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists during that span.
- At home, his success rate jumps to 83%, where he averages nearly 18 combined points, rebounds, and assists.
- Dallas has injuries impacting their backcourt defense, and Huerter is primed to take advantage of Klay Thompson, whose defensive prowess has diminished with age.
- Suggested Bet: Kevin Huerter Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Closing Thoughts
Tonight’s slate offers excellent value across a variety of matchups. Whether it’s James Harden in a dream matchup or Tyrese Maxey stepping up for the 76ers, these bets are backed by detailed insights and favorable circumstances.
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Let’s cash some tickets tonight! 🎟️