NBA Best Bets Monday 1/13/25

Buddy Hield Over 11.5 Points

Game: Warriors @ Raptors, 7:30 PM ET
Suggested Bet: Over 11.5 Points (-120 FanDuel)

• Key Insights:
  Buddy Hield has seen an uptick in playing time and shot volume recently, logging over 31 minutes in each of the last two games. Toronto ranks 27th in opponent three-point attempts allowed and 28th in defensive rating, setting up an excellent opportunity for Hield to capitalize on a defense that struggles against sharpshooters.
  • Over his last five games, Hield is averaging 13.6 points, hitting this mark in 60% of those contests.
  • Injuries to Gary Payton II, Jonathan Kuminga, and Brandin Podziemski ensure Hield continues to see increased opportunities.
• Analysis: Hield’s recent form and the Raptors’ defensive struggles make this line too low. He’s also taking an average of 12 three-point attempts per game in his last two outings, which aligns well against Toronto’s vulnerabilities.

Mikal Bridges Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA)

Game: Pistons @ Knicks, 7:30 PM ET
Suggested Bet: Over 21.5 PRA (-120 DraftKings)

• Key Insights:
  Bridges has a 70% hit rate on this line over his last 10 games, and Detroit ranks 24th in opponent rebounds allowed and 23rd in assists allowed to small forwards. While Bridges has been on a cold streak, the Pistons’ defensive lapses against wings set him up for a bounce-back performance.
  • Head-to-head, Bridges has exceeded this line in four of his last six games against Detroit, averaging 26.7 PRA.
  • Injuries to Jalen Brunson (game-time decision) could boost Bridges’ usage further.
• Analysis: Detroit’s lack of resistance against forwards combined with Bridges’ steady minutes (36 per game) gives him a solid floor and ceiling to hit this over.