NBA Best Bets Friday 1/3/25
Welcome to today’s NBA Best Bets breakdown! We’ve got a jam-packed slate with some intriguing matchups, player props, and totals to dive into. I’ll break down the key insights for each bet, giving you all the context you need to make informed decisions. Let’s jump in!
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Best Bet #1: Cade Cunningham Over 23.5 Points (DET vs. CHA)
- Matchup Insight: With LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller questionable, Charlotte could struggle on both ends. Detroit, led by Cunningham, has the upper hand, especially against a Hornets defense that ranks among the league’s worst in defending the paint and perimeter.
- Why This Bet?
- Cunningham will have additional scoring responsibilities with Jaden Ivey out.
- Charlotte allows high three-point shooting percentages, an area Cunningham can exploit.
- Detroit’s pace and Cade’s usage rate should lead to plenty of opportunities.
Best Bet #2: Scottie Barnes Over 20.5 Points (TOR vs. ORL)
- Matchup Insight: Orlando is a strong defensive team, but Toronto’s offense has come alive, especially with the return of Immanuel Quickley. Barnes has been a key offensive weapon in transition and half-court sets.
- Why This Bet?
- Orlando struggles against dynamic forwards like Barnes who can attack both inside and out.
- Quickley’s playmaking has taken pressure off Barnes, allowing him to focus on scoring.
- At home, Toronto has been highly effective offensively, covering the team total consistently.
Best Bet #3: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 27.5 Points (OKC vs. NYK)
- Matchup Insight: OKC takes on New York in what could be a tightly contested game. New York’s defense has struggled with elite guards, and Shai has been a consistent scoring machine.
- Why This Bet?
- SGA only played 30 minutes in yesterday’s blowout, keeping him fresh.
- New York allows heavy usage guards to score efficiently, especially from mid-range—a strength of SGA.
- At home, OKC leans heavily on Shai, particularly in competitive matchups.
Best Bet #4: Evan Mobley Over 18.5 Points (CLE vs. DAL)
- Matchup Insight: Dallas has been vulnerable in the paint, ranking in the bottom third in points allowed inside. Mobley thrives in matchups where he can exploit his size and athleticism.
- Why This Bet?
- Jared Allen and Mobley dominate in the paint, where Dallas has no answer.
- Mobley’s recent form (20+ points in three of his last five games) aligns perfectly with the Mavericks’ defensive weaknesses.
- Cleveland’s offense operates efficiently through their big men, especially in mismatches like this one.
Best Bet #5: Nikola Jokić Over 49.5 Points + Rebounds (DEN vs. SAS)
- Matchup Insight: San Antonio’s defense has been one of the league’s worst, particularly against dominant big men like Jokić.
- Why This Bet?
- Jokić thrives in matchups where Denver can control the pace, and the Spurs are a bottom-tier team in defensive rebounding.
- With Aaron Gordon out, Jokić has taken on an even larger offensive and rebounding load.
- He has crushed this number in three straight games against similar opponents.
Best Bet #6: Desmond Bane Over 2.5 Three-Pointers (MEM vs. SAC)
- Matchup Insight: Sacramento’s defense allows the second-most three-pointers in the league, making this a prime spot for Bane to shine.
- Why This Bet?
- Without Ja Morant, Bane’s shot volume increases, particularly from beyond the arc.
- Sacramento’s inability to defend the perimeter plays perfectly into Bane’s strengths.
- He’s hit 3+ threes in his last three games, and the Kings’ perimeter defense won’t stop that trend.
Best Bet #7: Trae Young Over 9.5 Assists (ATL vs. LAL)
- Matchup Insight: The Lakers have struggled defensively in the paint and in transition, two areas where Trae thrives as a facilitator.
- Why This Bet?
- If Anthony Davis is out, the Lakers’ interior defense will be even softer, leading to more assist opportunities for Young.
- Atlanta’s offense runs through Trae’s playmaking, especially in high-scoring games.
- Young has consistently hit this mark against teams with poor defensive rotations.
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