Player props can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we’re going to focus on the former.
When it comes to sports betting, understanding player props can be your ticket to success. These bets allow you to dive deep into individual player performances, making them a valuable tool in your arsenal. Today, we’ll explore some enticing MLB player prop bets that could potentially boost your bankroll. So, let’s dive right in.
Royce Lewis To Record 2+ Total Bases (-115)
- Betting odds: -115
Why this bet looks promising:
We’ve got a thrilling four-game slate ahead of us, and there’s one prop that stands out in the crowd. It involves the Minnesota Twins, who are looking to flex their offensive muscles against the Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox will send Jose Urena to the mound, and he’s been struggling mightily this season. His stats tell a grim story – a .438 wOBA allowed, .659 SLG against, a sky-high 6.42 xFIP, a staggering 3.97 HR/9, a 14.8% walk rate, and a worrisome 41.7% fly-ball rate when facing right-handed hitters. In short, it’s a recipe for disaster.
Enter Royce Lewis, the Twins’ bright spot. Lewis has been on fire lately, with his rolling xwOBA numbers consistently in a spot to produce. On the season, he boasts an impressive 149 wRC+, a .386 wOBA, a .333 BABIP, a robust .259 ISO, and a 39.7% fly-ball rate against right-handed pitchers. In other words, he’s primed to deliver tonight.
Our Take: Betting on Royce Lewis to record 2 or more total bases seems like a solid play given the favorable matchup. Urena’s struggles should give Lewis plenty of opportunities to shine.
Aaron Civale Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
- Betting odds: -120
Why this bet has an edge:
Now, let’s shift our focus to Aaron Civale, who faces a tougher challenge tonight against the Baltimore Orioles.
The Orioles’ lineup isn’t a pushover when it comes to striking out. They boast a middle-of-the-road 21.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. That’s 15th in the league, indicating they’re no easy targets for punch-outs.
Furthermore, the Orioles possess a 108 wRC+ (12th), a .176 ISO (13th), and a .307 BABIP (8th). They excel at making contact, have power, and don’t succumb to strikeouts easily. All of these factors make it a less-than-ideal matchup for Civale.
Speaking of Civale, he’s not known for racking up strikeouts at an elite level. His stats, including a 21.4% strikeout rate, a 9.9% swinging-strike rate, and a 29.1% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%), fall below the league averages in two of the three primary strikeout categories. To put it bluntly, he’s not a dominant strikeout pitcher.
Civale’s move to the Rays hasn’t improved his strikeout numbers either. In his seven starts with his new team, he’s had a strikeout rate lower than 20.0% three times, with only two other starts hovering around the league average.
Our Take: Betting on Aaron Civale to finish with under 4.5 strikeouts appears to be a wise choice given the circumstances. The Orioles’ ability to make contact and Civale’s modest strikeout abilities make this bet a compelling option.
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In conclusion, when it comes to MLB player prop bets, you need to be strategic and well-informed. These two picks, Royce Lewis to record 2+ total bases and Aaron Civale under 4.5 strikeouts, offer compelling opportunities to enhance your sports betting journey. Remember to check OddsJam for more valuable insights and tools, and don’t miss out on their FREE 7 Day Trial!
