MLB DFS Top Pitchers Early Slate 4/24/24

Today’s MLB DFS action is split into two distinct slates, Early and Turbo, each presenting unique matchups and pitching duels. Here, we break down the top pitching options and a few under-the-radar plays to consider when building your DFS lineups.

Early Slate Top Pitchers

1. Blake Snell (San Francisco Giants)

• Matchup: vs. New York Mets
• Key Insights:
  • Boasts a high strikeout rate of 31%, ideal for DFS upside.
  • Despite a tendency to walk batters (13% BB rate), Snell’s ERA of 2.82 indicates his ability to escape jams.
• Why He’s a Top Play: His strikeout prowess makes him a high-ceiling option, particularly effective against a Mets lineup that can be prone to strikeouts.

2. Jordan Montgomery (Arizona Diamondbacks)

• Matchup: at St. Louis Cardinals
• Key Insights:
  • Solid ERA of 3.14 and a xWOBA of .270 suggest effective pitching and limited hard contact.
  • Montgomery’s control (6% BB rate) will be crucial in managing the Cardinals’ hitters.
• Why He’s a Top Play: Reliable and consistent, Montgomery offers a safer floor for DFS players, making him a strong option for cash games.

Under the Radar:

• Sean Manaea (New York Mets)
  • Matchup: at San Francisco Giants
  • Key Insights:
    • High K% of 26% can be leveraged for DFS points.
    • Faces a Giants lineup that has variability in their offensive output, which could play to Manaea’s strengths despite his higher xERA of 5.74.
  • Why He’s a Top Pick: Potential for high strikeouts makes him a risky but potentially rewarding GPP play.

Turbo Slate Top Pitchers

1. Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds)

• Matchup: vs. Philadelphia Phillies
• Key Insights:
  • Exceptional 30% strikeout rate coupled with a solid 3.13 SIERA.
  • Despite a higher ERA of 4.86, Lodolo’s underlying metrics suggest better performance, particularly against right-handed batters.
• Why He’s a Top Play: High strikeout potential and the ability to manage both left and right-handed hitters make him a premier option on the Turbo slate.

2. Landon Knack (Los Angeles Dodgers)

• Matchup: at Washington Nationals
• Key Insights:
  • Strong performance metrics with a 3.60 ERA and a good mix of strikeouts and control.
  • Facing a Nationals lineup that lacks depth, providing a favorable context for a strong DFS outing.
• Why He’s a Top Play: Knack offers value and reliability, making him suitable for all DFS formats due to his matchup and pitching stability.

3. Shawn Armstrong (Tampa Bay Rays)

• Matchup: vs. Detroit Tigers
• Key Insights:
  • Low ERA of 1.86 and a high K% of 27% against a Tigers team that struggles offensively.
  • Armstrong’s performance metrics, including a xWOBA of .288, indicate he could dominate the matchup.
• Why He’s a Top Play: His effectiveness and the Tigers’ offensive woes create a perfect storm for a high-scoring DFS performance.

Under the Radar:

• Josh Fleming (Pittsburgh Pirates)
  • Matchup: vs. Milwaukee Brewers
  • Key Insights:
    • High ground ball rate of 61% could neutralize the Brewers’ power hitters.
    • While not a high-strikeout pitcher, Fleming’s ability to induce ground balls offers a pathway to DFS relevance, especially in a pitcher-friendly park.
  • Why He’s a Top Pick: A lower-owned, cost-effective option who could exceed expectations by limiting damage and innings pitched.

Strategy Tips for Pitcher Selection:

• High Strikeout Potential: Prioritize pitchers with high K% for their ceiling in DFS scoring.
• Pitcher vs. Lineup Matchup: Consider the opposing lineup’s strengths and weaknesses relative to the pitcher’s profile.
• Park Factors: Always factor in the ballpark, as some parks significantly favor pitchers over hitters.

These insights should guide your DFS pitcher selections, helping you target the top performers while also identifying valuable sleeper picks that could differentiate your lineups in large-field tournaments.