MLB Betting Guide: Wake Boston Up When September Ends

When it comes to betting on Major League Baseball (MLB), you’ve got a plethora of options to explore. From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, there’s no shortage of ways to get in on the action. But with the MLB schedule stretching over a long and arduous season, you need to be armed with the right insights to make informed bets. In this MLB betting guide, we’ll provide you with expert analysis and picks for the games on Tuesday, September 26, 2023.

Why Expert Insight Matters

Outlooks in MLB can vary significantly from day to day. The performance of starting pitchers, team bullpens, and a wealth of advanced statistics all play a role in determining the odds and the potential outcome of a game. To help you make the most of your bets, we’ll be using numberFire’s projections as a guide, focusing on the MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook that are most appealing for today’s matchups.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you’re seeing the most updated projections.

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Under 7.0 (+100)

In this matchup, we kick things off up north where there’s a lot of value in the New York Yankees-Toronto Blue Jays game going under 7.0 runs. Here’s why:

Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays’ starting pitcher, boasts one of the 10 best ERAs in baseball (3.29) and has struck out the third-most batters in the league (232). His impressive strikeout rate and whiff rate make him a formidable opponent for the Yankees.
The Yankees have struggled against right-handed pitchers all season, ranking 27th in wOBA (.298) and 24th in wRC+ (89). They also have a high strikeout rate (24.0%) on the road.
Michael King, the Yankees’ starter, has been in excellent form lately, giving up just four runs in his last five starts and striking out 13 hitters in his most recent outing against the Blue Jays.
Toronto’s offense has been below average against righties in the second half of the season, ranking 18th in wOBA (.316).

With the combination of strong pitching and offensive struggles, we expect this game to stay under 7.0 runs.

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox

Rays -1.5 (+125)

The Boston Red Sox are going through a rough patch, and their struggles against right-handed pitchers are evident. In September, they’ve posted some of the lowest offensive numbers, making the Rays -1.5 a compelling bet:

The Red Sox have the fourth-lowest wOBA (.299), seventh-lowest ISO (.157), and fifth-lowest wRC+ (86) against righties this month.
Tampa Bay’s Zach Eflin, with a 3.44 ERA and a strong strikeout rate, is well-equipped to capitalize on Boston’s offensive woes.
The Rays’ offense has remained potent, even without Wander Franco. They’ve been performing well against right-handed pitchers, ranking in the top half of the league in wOBA (.324) and ISO (.171).
Tanner Houck, Boston’s starter, has struggled recently, giving up at least four runs in two of his last four starts.

Given Boston’s offensive struggles and Tampa’s solid performance against righties, the Rays -1.5 is a favorable bet.

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants

Padres ML (-124)

In this clash between two teams with different recent fortunes, the San Diego Padres look poised for a strong performance:

San Francisco has struggled in September, going 8-15, while the Padres have excelled with a 15-7 record.
San Diego’s Seth Lugo has been a consistent performer, boasting a 3.79 ERA and a low walk rate.
The Giants’ offense has been lackluster against right-handed pitchers recently, ranking 29th in wOBA (.288) and ISO (.133) since August 1st.
San Diego’s lineup has been formidable against left-handed pitchers, with the highest wOBA (.389), second-highest ISO (.219), and the highest wRC+ (151) in that split since the All-Star break.

With the Giants struggling and the Padres in strong form, betting on the Padres to win at -124 odds is a smart choice.

Conclusion

When it comes to MLB betting, expert insight can make all the difference. By considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, you can make informed decisions and increase your chances of winning. Remember, odds can change, so always check for the latest updates before placing your bets.

FAQ

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Disclaimer: Betting involves risk, and it’s important to gamble responsibly. These picks are for informational purposes only, and odds may change. Make sure to do your research and consider your own judgment before placing bets.