MLB Best Bets Tuesday 4/8/25
Hey everyone! Welcome back to another day of MLB action. It’s Tuesday, April 8, 2025, and we’ve got a full slate of games to dig into. I’m here to break down the matchups, share some key insights, and give you my top MLB Best Bets for today.
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Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
Key Insights:
This matchup pits Tariq Skubal (Tigers) against Carlos Carrasco (Yankees). Skubal’s been shaky on the road this season, and while he’s yet to pitch at home, his numbers against the Yankees’ current roster are a bit concerning (expected slugging of .650). Carrasco, meanwhile, had a decent outing against Arizona but isn’t exactly a lockdown arm. Detroit’s offense has been hot, averaging nearly six runs per game, though I’m skeptical they’ll keep that up long-term.
- Why Javier Baez Under 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI is a Top Bet: Baez struggles against Carrasco’s pitch mix—particularly sliders, where his wOBA drops to .184. Carrasco leans heavily on that pitch, and Baez’s overall numbers against righties aren’t stellar. With Skubal likely keeping the Yankees in check early, this game could stay low-scoring, limiting Baez’s chances to produce.
- Suggested Bet: Javier Baez Under 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Key Insights:
Paul Skenes takes on Sonny Gray in a pitching duel that screams low scoring. Skenes has been solid, including a seven-inning gem against Tampa Bay, while Gray’s still finding his groove but has the talent to stifle Pittsburgh’s shaky offense. Both teams have leaned toward NRFYs (No Runs First Inning) this season—Pirates at 53% at home, Cardinals at 58% on the road.
- Why NRFY is a Top Bet: Skenes has cashed NRFYs in both his starts, and while Gray’s been inconsistent there, this matchup favors early zeroes. Pittsburgh’s offense has been inconsistent, and Gray’s pedigree suggests he can handle them. I expect both pitchers to come out strong.
- Suggested Bet: First Inning NRFY (-135)
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Key Insights:
Garrett Crochet (Red Sox) faces Easton Lucas (Blue Jays). Crochet was lights-out against Baltimore last start (8 IP, 0 ER), while Lucas leans heavily on fastballs—55% in his lone start—which Boston crushes (.316 AVG vs. lefties). Toronto’s offense has been quiet, and Crochet’s mix of sliders and cutters should exploit that.
- Why Red Sox First Five Run Line (-0.5) is a Top Bet: Boston’s right-heavy lineup feasts on Lucas’s fastballs, and Crochet’s been dominant enough to keep Toronto scoreless early. The Sox have won six of their last seven before yesterday, and I see them jumping ahead here.
- Suggested Bet: Red Sox First Five Run Line (-0.5) (-125)
- Why Ernie Clement Under 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI is a Top Bet: Clement struggles against lefties like Crochet, especially with sliders and cutters in the mix. His fastball success won’t matter much here, and Crochet’s strikeout stuff should limit him.
- Suggested Bet: Ernie Clement Under 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels
Key Insights:
Shane Baz (Rays) takes on Kyle Hendricks (Angels). Baz was electric in his first start (6 IP, 10 K, 0 ER), while Hendricks hung in against St. Louis but isn’t a pitcher I trust long-term. Tampa’s offense is inconsistent, but Baz gives them an edge early against an Angels lineup that’s been pulling teeth for runs.
- Why Rays First Five Moneyline is a Top Bet: Baz’s nasty curveball and fastball combo should baffle the Angels, who don’t hit righties well. Hendricks’ fastball-heavy approach plays into Tampa’s strengths against righties. I see the Rays leading after five.
- Suggested Bet: Rays First Five Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Key Insights:
Zack Wheeler (Phillies) battles Chris Sale (Braves). Sale’s been solid against Philly historically (41% K rate), but Atlanta’s offense is ice-cold (1-8 record). Wheeler’s versatile pitch mix should handle the Braves, and Philly’s bats are rolling (8-7 vs. Dodgers last game).
- Why Phillies Moneyline is a Top Bet: At plus money, Philly’s the value play. Their offense is far superior to Atlanta’s right now, and while Sale could keep it close, Wheeler’s just as good, and Atlanta’s bullpen is suspect late.
- Suggested Bet: Phillies Moneyline (+ odds)
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers
Key Insights:
Jameson Taillon (Cubs) faces Patrick Corbin (Rangers). Corbin’s numbers against the Cubs’ roster are brutal (.352 xBA, .672 xSLG), and Taillon’s been shaky but faces a Texas offense I’m not sold on yet. Windy conditions in Texas could boost scoring.
- Why Cubs Moneyline is a Top Bet: Corbin’s a fade candidate here—his first start of the year looms, and the Cubs should tag him. Taillon’s not great, but Texas hasn’t proven they can capitalize consistently.
- Suggested Bet: Cubs Moneyline
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Key Insights:
Cole Ragans (Royals) takes on Pablo Lopez (Twins). Ragans has two strong starts (10 K vs. Milwaukee), while Minnesota’s lineup is abysmal against lefties (.071 AVG, 33% K rate). Lopez is solid, but KC’s offense has more upside.
- Why Royals First Five Run Line (-0.5) is a Top Bet: Ragans should dominate a Twins lineup that can’t touch lefties, and Lopez isn’t invincible. KC’s bats can do enough early to grab the lead.
- Suggested Bet: Royals First Five Run Line (-0.5)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies
Key Insights:
Freddy Peralta (Brewers) faces Kyle Freeland (Rockies). Peralta’s been sharp and owns Colorado historically, while Freeland’s sinker-slider mix isn’t a great fit against Milwaukee. Coors Field is always a risk, but I trust Peralta to deal.
- Why Brewers First Five Moneyline is a Top Bet: Peralta’s velocity might get hit in Coors, but Colorado’s offense isn’t good enough to exploit it. Milwaukee’s playing better ball and should lead early.
- Suggested Bet: Brewers First Five Moneyline
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Key Insights:
Luis Castillo (Mariners) battles Framber Valdez (Astros). Castillo’s 67% NRFY rate at home last year and six straight NRFYs in this matchup make it a lock. Valdez is strong on the road, and both offenses can be sluggish.
- Why NRFY is a Top Bet: Castillo’s numbers against Houston are solid (.254 xBA), and Valdez keeps games tight. Yesterday’s NRFY cashed, and this feels like a repeat.
- Suggested Bet: First Inning NRFY (-135)
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
Key Insights:
Logan Webb (Giants) faces Nick Lodolo (Reds). SF’s lineup is better despite struggles vs. lefties, and Webb’s curve-heavy approach exploits Cincinnati’s weakness against off-speed pitches. Wind’s blowing out, but I’m not sold on a high-scoring game.
- Why Giants Moneyline is a Top Bet: SF’s offense has more upside than Cincinnati’s, and Webb should keep the Reds quiet. Lodolo’s not a heat-thrower, which favors the Giants here.
- Suggested Bet: Giants Moneyline
Oakland A’s vs. San Diego Padres
Key Insights:
Dylan Cease (Padres) takes on Jeffrey Springs (A’s). Cease’s slider-heavy mix dominates Oakland, and San Diego’s offense—Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts—should get to Springs, who struggles vs. righties. Yesterday’s win reinforces this edge.
- Why Padres First Five Moneyline is a Top Bet: Cease is the better pitcher, and SD’s bats are superior. Springs got tagged by Chicago earlier, and Oakland’s bullpen can’t save them late.
- Suggested Bet: Padres First Five Moneyline (-130)
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Alright, folks, there you have it—my MLB Best Bets for today’s slate! Want to take your betting game to the next level? Maximize your betting and fantasy picks with Oddsjam!
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