Opening Day for the MLB season is always a momentous occasion, marking the beginning of a long journey toward the World Series. Today, I’ve scoured through matchups, player performances, and various stats to bring you my top 5 MLB Best Bets for today’s slate.
Let’s dive into the matchups and why these players stand out as top plays.
1. Jose Berrios – Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-132) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Matchup Insight: The Rays are disciplined hitters, known for their low strikeout rate and high WRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Their approach at the plate makes them a tough matchup for any pitcher, especially one like Berrios, who isn’t a dominant strikeout pitcher.
- Why Bet: Berrios’ spring training performance showed a lower-than-average strikeout rate, and facing a team like the Rays, who excel in plate discipline, doesn’t bode well for high strikeout numbers. Additionally, pitchers early in the season aren’t typically stretched out, limiting Berrios’ opportunities for strikeouts.
2. Jose Altuve – To Record 2+ Total Bases (-105) vs. New York Yankees
- Matchup Insight: Facing Nester Cortez, Altuve has favorable splits, showcasing his ability to hit lefties well with a solid WRC+ and low strikeout rate.
- Why Bet: Altuve’s consistent hitting and position at the top of a potent Astros lineup give him plenty of opportunities to accumulate total bases. Cortez’s vulnerability to righties further cements Altuve as a solid bet.
3. Orioles Top Four Lineup – RBI Prop Bet (Even Money or Better)
- Matchup Insight: Facing Patrick Sandoval, the Orioles’ top hitters are in a prime position. Sandoval, an average pitcher with a tendency to allow base runners via walks, isn’t a daunting threat to Baltimore’s powerful lineup.
- Why Bet: The Orioles have high expectations this season, and their lineup is capable of exploiting Sandoval’s weaknesses. An RBI prop bet for hitters in the top four of their lineup offers good value, given the likelihood of them driving in runs.
4. Christian Walker – RBI Prop Bet (Odds Pending) vs. Colorado Rockies
- Matchup Insight: Kyle Freeland struggles against right-handed batters, both at home and away, making him an ideal target for Christian Walker, who has shown tremendous power against lefties.
- Why Bet: Walker’s ability to generate high ISO and WRC+ against left-handed pitching, combined with Freeland’s struggles, positions him well for RBI opportunities, especially with Arizona’s lineup depth and hitting environment.
5. Spencer Strider and Zach Wheeler Matchup – No Specific Bet
- Matchup Insight: A high-profile game with two potential Cy Young candidates. While exciting, the matchup doesn’t offer a clear path for profitable bets due to the pitchers’ strengths and potential weather issues.
- Why Bet: In games like this, it’s often wise to stay away from betting on pitcher strikeout totals or hitter performance props, as the quality of pitching can negate typical advantages.
Wrapping Up
Today’s MLB slate offers a mix of promising bets based on matchups and early season performances. Whether it’s taking advantage of disciplined hitters facing a pitcher with a low strikeout rate or betting on proven hitters against vulnerable pitching, these bets are designed to give you the edge.
Remember, early in the season, the opportunity to capitalize on pitchers not being fully stretched out and hitters adjusting to game speed can lead to valuable betting opportunities. Always keep an eye on the lines and good luck with your bets!
