As we prepare for the 2024 fantasy football season, deciding which running backs to target or fade in the early rounds is crucial. Here, we break down insights from Joe Pisapia, Derek Brown, and Andrew Erickson’s discussion, focusing on key running back battles, providing essential stats, trends, and actionable advice.
Washington Commanders: Austin Ekeler vs. Brian Robinson Jr.
Austin Ekeler (RB31, ADP 95)
- Pros:
- Elite pass-catching skills, which can boost his value in PPR formats.
- Rookie quarterbacks often check down to their running backs, potentially increasing Ekeler’s targets.
- Cons:
- Has faced injury issues in recent seasons.
- Uncertainty with a new head coach and a rookie quarterback leading the offense.
- Stats: Averaged over 70 receptions per season over the last three years, making him a PPR asset when healthy.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB34, ADP 108)
- Pros:
- Expected to be the goal-line back in an offense that could feature significant rushing opportunities.
- Proven ability to handle a high workload, with the potential for a high touchdown count.
- Cons:
- Limited involvement in the passing game could cap his upside, especially in PPR formats.
- Stats: Recorded over 800 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns last season, despite missing games due to injury.
Key Insights:
- Target: Brian Robinson Jr. for his goal-line potential and the likelihood of a high rushing workload.
- Fade: Austin Ekeler due to injury concerns and uncertainty with a new offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Najee Harris vs. Jaylen Warren
Najee Harris (RB20, ADP 67)
- Pros:
- Consistent volume as the primary running back.
- Has shown the ability to be a workhorse back with over 1,200 all-purpose yards in each of his first three seasons.
- Cons:
- Efficiency issues and potential touchdown vulturing by Jaylen Warren.
- Decrease in fantasy production over the past three seasons.
- Stats: Averaged over 250 touches per season but saw a decline in fantasy points per game last year.
Jaylen Warren (RB27, ADP 85)
- Pros:
- Better efficiency and pass-catching ability compared to Harris.
- Potential to take over a larger role if Harris continues to struggle.
- Cons:
- Limited track record as a feature back.
- Stats: Outscored Harris on a per-game basis last season, making him a high-upside pick.
Key Insights:
- Target: Jaylen Warren for his efficiency and pass-catching upside.
- Fade: Najee Harris due to his declining efficiency and the potential for a reduced role.
Miami Dolphins: Devon Achane vs. Raheem Mostert
Devon Achane (RB9, ADP 20)
- Pros:
- Explosive playmaker with the potential for high touchdown numbers.
- Expected to be the lead back in a high-powered Miami offense.
- Cons:
- Injury concerns due to his smaller frame.
- High draft cost requires significant investment.
- Stats: Scored 11 touchdowns in 11 games last season, showcasing his playmaking ability.
Raheem Mostert (RB30, ADP 91)
- Pros:
- Proven performer in the Miami offense with a lower draft cost.
- Potential to provide solid value if he stays healthy.
- Cons:
- Age and injury history are significant concerns.
- Stats: Played 15 games last season, scoring 18 touchdowns.
Key Insights:
- Target: Devon Achane for his high upside and role in the offense.
- Fade: Raheem Mostert due to his age and injury concerns, despite the lower cost.
Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs vs. David Montgomery
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB4, ADP 12)
- Pros:
- Dynamic playmaker with significant pass-catching upside.
- Increased role expected in his second season.
- Cons:
- High draft cost requires a significant investment.
- Stats: Averaged 15 points per game in the last 12 games of the previous season, placing him just outside the top five fantasy running backs on a per-game basis.
David Montgomery (RB21, ADP 77)
- Pros:
- Expected to handle goal-line duties, providing touchdown upside.
- Lower draft cost offers potential value.
- Cons:
- Limited ceiling compared to Gibbs, especially in PPR formats.
- Stats: Split Red Zone usage evenly with Gibbs last season, but had lower overall fantasy production.
Key Insights:
- Target: Jahmyr Gibbs for his upside and pass-catching ability.
- Fade: David Montgomery due to his capped ceiling and reliance on touchdowns for value.
Conclusion
When drafting early-round running backs, it’s essential to balance potential with risk. Targeting players like Brian Robinson Jr., Jaylen Warren, Devon Achane, and Jahmyr Gibbs can provide significant upside, while fading players like Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris, Raheem Mostert, and David Montgomery can help avoid potential pitfalls.
Key Points to Remember:
- Washington: Target Brian Robinson Jr. for goal-line work.
- Pittsburgh: Prefer Jaylen Warren for efficiency and pass-catching.
- Miami: Invest in Devon Achane for his explosive potential.
- Detroit: Prioritize Jahmyr Gibbs for his overall upside and pass-catching ability.
Use these insights to build a strong foundation for your fantasy football team in 2024. Happy drafting!
