Braves at Phillies: How to Make the Right Call on Game 4

When it comes to baseball betting, the options are as diverse as the game itself. From moneylines to run totals and first-five-inning wagers, there’s no shortage of ways to bet on the long and exciting MLB season. The outcome of a game can hinge on numerous factors, such as starting pitchers, team performance, and a plethora of advanced statistics that can reveal trends and tendencies. In this article, we’ll use numberFire’s projections as a guiding light to help you navigate the MLB odds offered by FanDuel Sportsbook. So, let’s dive into the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies, and discover which bets might be your winning ticket.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

Under 4.5 Runs in the First 5 Innings (-126)

If we take away the Philadelphia Phillies’ impressive 6-run performance from yesterday’s game, the first five innings in all three games of this series would have seen fewer than 4.5 runs scored. With Spencer Strider back on the mound for the Atlanta Braves, it’s reasonable to expect the Phillies won’t have the same early-game success this time around.

Strider has been nothing short of outstanding this season. He finished the regular season with a remarkable 2.86 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), an impressive 36.8% strikeout rate, and a league-leading 20 wins. His dominance carried over into Game 1 of this series, where he pitched 7.0 innings, allowing just a single earned run while striking out 8 batters. This is consistent with his performance against the Phillies throughout the 2023 season:

May 28: 6.0 innings, 2 hits, 2 earned runs, 9 strikeouts
June 20: 6.0 innings, 8 hits, 1 earned run, 9 strikeouts
September 13: 7.0 innings, 4 hits, 1 earned run, 9 strikeouts
September 19: 7.0 innings, 4 hits, 3 earned runs, 11 strikeouts
October 7: 7.0 innings, 5 hits, 1 earned run, 8 strikeouts

Out of these five starts, Strider secured wins in four, with the only loss occurring in Game 1 of this series. Despite some fluctuations in his advanced stats, he maintained a solid 3.86 ERA for the season.

Notably, Strider’s dominance over the Phillies goes beyond this season, as he boasted a phenomenal 1.27 ERA and struck out 34 batters in 21.1 innings against them last year. This track record of excellence makes the Braves ML (-154) an enticing bet in its own right.

But we’re searching for even more value, especially considering how Game 1 played out. I believe we can find that extra edge by betting on the first-five-inning under.

On the opposing side, Ranger Suarez has shown he can hold his own against Atlanta. While he may not pitch as deep into the game as Strider, Suarez has demonstrated his ability to contain the Braves in short stints. In Game 1, he threw 3.2 one-hit, shutout innings, and in the regular season, he allowed just a single run in 6.0 innings of work against them.

This performance aligns with his 2022 season, where Suarez maintained a solid 3.21 ERA over 28.0 innings facing the Braves. Suarez has also excelled on the grandest stage, delivering 5.0 shutout innings in Game 3 of last year’s World Series and holding a career 0.98 ERA over 18.1 postseason innings.

Both the Braves and the Phillies are known for their offensive firepower, but as we progress deeper into the playoffs and bullpens start to fatigue, placing trust in game-long bets becomes riskier due to the volatility of bullpen performances.

However, when it comes to the first five innings, both Strider and Suarez have demonstrated their ability to excel. So, root for a calm start to the game, cash in on this first-five-inning wager, and then kick back and savor the excitement of the final four innings.

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