NBA Best Bets Thursday 12/26/24
It’s the day after Christmas, and the NBA slate is packed with nine exciting matchups. After some stellar performances on Christmas Day, today’s games promise more betting and DFS value.
Let’s dive into the key insights for today’s slate and highlight the best bets, complete with detailed analysis of why these plays stand out.
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Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Suggested Bet: Jalen Williams Over 16.5 Points
Why this bet?
- Paint Dominance: Indiana struggles defensively in the paint, allowing the fourth-most points in that area. OKC thrives inside, ranking 12th in points in the paint this season.
- Role in Offense: Jalen Williams has been instrumental in OKC’s success, leading the team in field goal attempts in the paint over the last 10 games.
- Game Flow: With both teams limiting three-point opportunities, OKC will exploit Indiana’s interior defense, giving Williams plenty of opportunities to score.
Washington Wizards vs. Charlotte Hornets
- Suggested Bet: Wizards Moneyline
Why this bet?
- Recent Dominance: Washington beat Charlotte just a week ago at home and has a 6-4 head-to-head record over the past two years.
- Shooting Advantage: The Wizards’ offense, which ranks fourth in three-point frequency over the last 10 games, matches up well against Charlotte’s poor perimeter defense.
- Home-Court Edge: Washington has been reliable at home, and this matchup favors their shooting tendencies.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls
- Suggested Bet: Jalen Johnson Over 20.5 Points
Why this bet?
- Key Matchup: The Bulls have struggled defending the paint, allowing the most points in the paint over the last seven games. Johnson, who thrives in that area, has had strong performances against Chicago earlier this season.
- Increased Role: With injury questions surrounding Trae Young, Johnson could see an even larger share of the offensive workload.
- Consistency vs. Bulls: Johnson has hit this line in both prior matchups against Chicago, showcasing his ability to exploit their interior defense.
Houston Rockets vs. New Orleans Pelicans
- Suggested Bet: Pelicans Team Total Under 105.5
Why this bet?
- Injury Concerns: With Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, and other key players out or questionable, the Pelicans’ offensive firepower is severely diminished.
- Defensive Edge: Houston ranks among the league’s best defensive teams, particularly in limiting points in the paint—an area where the Pelicans typically excel.
- Recent Blowout: The Rockets recently beat the Pelicans by 20 points, and the defensive strategy is likely to remain effective.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets
- Suggested Bet: Bucks Team Total Over 115.5
Why this bet?
- Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s Motivation: After vocalizing his displeasure at not playing on Christmas, Giannis is primed for a dominant performance. The Nets’ interior defense lacks the personnel to stop him.
- Three-Point Shooting: The Bucks have been firing from deep at a high rate, and Brooklyn’s perimeter defense has shown signs of decline.
- Home-Court Strength: Milwaukee is formidable at home, covering 71% of their games in front of their fans this season.
Sacramento Kings vs. Detroit Pistons
- Suggested Bet: Detroit Pistons +6
Why this bet?
- Defensive Matchup: Detroit’s defense ranks ninth in points allowed in the paint, effectively neutralizing one of Sacramento’s strengths.
- Perimeter Edge: Detroit has been shooting over 40% from beyond the arc in their last 10 games, while Sacramento struggles to defend the perimeter.
- Close Contests: This game profiles as a closer matchup than the spread suggests, with Detroit keeping things competitive through their improved shooting.
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