MLB Best Bets Monday 5/13/24

In today’s MLB slate, we delve deep into the matchups to identify top betting opportunities. Here are our top five picks based on current form, pitching matchups, and historical performance. We focus not just on the likely winners but also on player props and potential over/under bets that hold value.

1. Top Moneyline Pick: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs

• Why Bet: The Braves boast one of the strongest lineups in the league and are facing Shota Imanaga, whose stats are less intimidating compared to Atlanta’s hitting prowess. With the Braves’ lineup consistently performing well against left-handed pitching, the odds are in favor of Atlanta overcoming Chicago’s recent surge.
• Statistics: The Braves have a strong .446 xwOBA against lefties, which should play to their advantage against Imanaga.

2. Best Player Prop: Reynaldo Lopez (Strikeouts Over)

• Matchup: Braves vs. Cubs
• Why Bet: Lopez has shown he can rack up strikeouts and is facing a Cubs team that’s had moderate strikeout rates. Given his recent form and the Cubs’ tendency to swing and miss, betting on Lopez to exceed his strikeouts total offers good value.

3. Top Over/Under: Guardians vs. Rangers

• Why Bet on Over: Both Tanner Bibee and Michael Lorenzen have shown vulnerability this season, and with both teams possessing capable hitters, the game could easily turn into a high-scoring affair.
• Statistics: The Rangers’ lineup has been particularly potent, and with the over/under set at a reachable margin, it aligns well with potential game outcomes.

4. Underdog with Value: Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners

• Why Bet: The Royals are facing George Kirby, who, despite good overall stats, has struggled in previous outings against Kansas City. With the Royals at plus odds, they represent a valuable underdog bet.
• Statistics: The Royals have managed a .344 average against Kirby, suggesting they have his number.

5. Total Bases Prop: Mookie Betts (Over)

• Matchup: Dodgers vs. Giants
• Why Bet: Betts has been on a hot streak, and with the Dodgers’ lineup going up against a potentially weaker pitching setup from the Giants, betting on Betts to cover his total bases over seems like a smart pick.
• Statistics: Betts’ consistent hitting and power provide confidence in his ability to generate runs.

Summary:

This slate offers a blend of strong favorites, value underdogs, and player props based on detailed matchup analysis and recent performances. Each bet is selected based on statistical backing and matchup advantages, aiming to provide the best potential return for bettors.