Today’s MLB DFS slate features some standout hitters based on their matchups, which could yield high returns. We’ll focus on top hitters from various games and point out a few under-the-radar players who could surprise in today’s contests.
Top DFS Plays
1. Pete Alonso (Mets) – 1B | $5300
- Matchup: vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), Pirates
- Key Stats: .326 ISO, .400 xWOBA against LHP
- Why He’s a Top Play:
- Alonso’s power against left-hand pitching is elite, making him a prime candidate to exploit Falter’s high ISO allowed and substantial xWOBA.
- His potential for home runs is elevated against a pitcher with a 5.17 ERA and poor splits against right-hand hitters.
2. Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves) – OF | $6500
- Matchup: vs. J.P. France (RHP), Astros
- Key Stats: .248 ISO, .447 xWOBA against RHP
- Why He’s a Top Play:
- Acuña’s combination of power and speed makes him lethal, especially against France who struggles with a .362 xWOBA against righties.
- His ability to contribute in multiple DFS categories (home runs, stolen bases, runs scored) offers a high ceiling.
3. Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres) – OF | $5500
- Matchup: vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), Brewers
- Key Stats: .185 ISO, .353 xWOBA against RHP
- Why He’s a Top Play:
- Tatis’s aggressive approach and power make him a threat to capitalize on any mistake Peralta might make, despite Peralta’s solid stats.
- The matchup is less about exploiting a weak pitcher and more about leveraging Tatis’s high potential for impactful plays.
Under-the-Radar Plays
1. Ryan Jeffers (Twins) – C | $3900
- Matchup: vs. Bruce Zimmermann (LHP), Orioles
- Key Stats: .295 ISO, .353 xWOBA against LHP
- Why He’s a Sneaky Play:
- Jeffers showcases impressive power against lefties, and Zimmermann’s .345 xWOBA against right-hand batters presents a favorable matchup.
- His lower price and position as a catcher offer great value in a lineup, allowing for spending elsewhere.
2. Jack Suwinski (Pirates) – OF | $3800
- Matchup: vs. Luis Severino (RHP), Mets
- Key Stats: .253 ISO, .368 xWOBA against RHP
- Why He’s a Sneaky Play:
- Suwinski’s solid power metrics align well against Severino, who has been vulnerable this season with a high ERA and xWOBA.
- As a lesser-known player, Suwinski could have low ownership, providing a potential edge in large field tournaments.
3. Jonah Heim (Rangers) – C | $4100
- Matchup: vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), Tigers
- Key Stats: .174 ISO, .338 xWOBA against LHP
- Why He’s a Sneaky Play:
- Heim has consistent power against left-handers, and while Skubal is a tough opponent, Heim’s ability to hit for both average and power makes him a viable play.
- Catchers typically have lower ownership, and Heim offers both offensive upside and value.
Conclusion
Today’s slate presents various opportunities for DFS players to capitalize on favorable matchups and exploit vulnerabilities in pitchers. Whether you’re banking on the heavy hitters or looking for value in less obvious choices, integrating these players could maximize your DFS outcomes. Remember to consider the context of each game, pitcher tendencies, and batter strengths when finalizing your lineups.
