In today’s MLB DFS, identifying top hitters is crucial for building a winning lineup. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the top 5 DFS plays based on today’s matchups, focusing on their statistical advantages and potential in their respective games.
1. Aaron Judge (Yankees) – OF | $6200
- Matchup: vs. Chris Bassitt (R), Blue Jays
- Why He’s a Top Play:
- Power Threat: Judge’s impressive .376 expected home run (xHR) and .321 ISO against right-handed pitching make him a prime candidate for power production today.
- Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio: Despite a high strikeout rate (27.6%), his walk rate (19.6%) ensures he gets on base, increasing scoring opportunities.
- Game Context: Playing in Rogers Centre, a venue that can favor hitters, enhances his home run potential.
2. Yordan Alvarez (Astros) – OF | $5900
- Matchup: vs. Darius Vines (R), Braves
- Why He’s a Top Play:
- Dominant Hitting Stats: Alvarez’s .452 xHR and .310 ISO highlight his exceptional power, particularly beneficial against a rookie pitcher like Vines.
- Consistency: His ability to consistently get on base (.474 xwOBA) makes him a safe play with a high upside.
- Pitcher’s Profile: Facing a less experienced pitcher could allow Alvarez to exploit mistakes, especially at Minute Maid Park which is neutral to slightly hitter-friendly.
3. Mookie Betts (Dodgers) – 2B/SS | $6400
- Matchup: vs. Mitchell Parker (L), Nationals
- Why He’s a Top Play:
- Versatility and Power: Betts boasts a .353 ISO and .436 xwOBA against left-handed pitching, making him a lethal component in any DFS lineup.
- Leadoff Advantage: Batting first increases his plate appearances, offering more opportunities to score DFS points.
- Rookie Opponent: Parker’s MLB debut could be challenging, providing Betts with a favorable matchup to capitalize on.
4. Freddie Freeman (Dodgers) – 1B | $5800
- Matchup: vs. Mitchell Parker (L), Nationals
- Why He’s a Top Play:
- High Contact Rate: Freeman’s ability to make consistent contact (.385 xwOBA) positions him well against inexperienced pitching.
- Run Production: Positioned in the heart of the Dodgers lineup, he’s likely to have multiple RBI opportunities.
- Stadium Factor: Dodger Stadium’s dimensions benefit hitters like Freeman who excel in hitting for both power and average.
5. Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres) – OF | $5600
- Matchup: vs. Joe Ross (R), Brewers
- Why He’s a Top Play:
- Comeback Trail: Tatis’s return to form makes him a high-ceiling player, particularly against Ross, who struggles more with right-handed batters.
- Speed and Power Combo: His ability to contribute in multiple categories (power and stolen bases) provides a diverse point stream.
- Matchup Analysis: Ross’s susceptibility to giving up power (.167 ISO against RHP) aligns well with Tatis’s strengths.
Summary:
These top hitters are selected not only for their individual capabilities but also for their favorable matchups against today’s pitchers. Whether it’s exploiting rookie pitchers or capitalizing on venue advantages, each player offers significant potential to contribute heavily to DFS scores. Prioritize these hitters to maximize your lineup’s output in today’s MLB DFS slate.
