In today’s DFS slate, we look beyond the typical superstars to identify top hitters who could provide great value and upside. Here are the top 5 DFS plays, based on current matchups, pitching opponents, and venue factors that make these players particularly appealing today.
Top 5 DFS Plays:
1. Jorge Soler – OF, Giants (vs. Marlins’ Edward Cabrera)
- Matchup: Edward Cabrera at loanDepot park
- Key Stats: .219 ISO, robust .348 xwOBA against right-hand pitchers
- Why He’s a Top Play:
- Pitcher’s High BB Rate: Cabrera’s tendency to walk batters (15.3% BB rate) can give Soler more opportunities to score.
- Power Potential: Soler’s power, especially against RHP, positions him to capitalize on Cabrera’s .156 ISO against.
2. Bryson Stott – 2B, Phillies (vs. Rockies’ Cal Quantrill)
- Matchup: Cal Quantrill at Citizens Bank Park
- Key Stats: Solid .150 ISO and .311 xwOBA in matchups against RHP
- Why He’s a Top Play:
- Venue Advantage: Citizens Bank Park boosts left-handed hitters, enhancing Stott’s ability to produce extra-base hits.
- Quantrill’s Struggles: Given Quantrill’s high xwOBA (.363) and low K-rate, Stott has a higher likelihood of contact and production.
3. Marcus Semien – 2B, Rangers (vs. Tigers’ Reese Olson)
- Matchup: Reese Olson at Comerica Park
- Key Stats: .209 ISO, .338 xwOBA against right-handers
- Why He’s a Top Play:
- Young Pitcher’s Challenge: Olson’s inexperience and higher xwOBA (.340) could be exploited by Semien’s seasoned approach.
- Solid Matchup: Semien’s strong performance against righties could shine through Olson’s vulnerabilities.
4. Ryan Jeffers – C, Twins (vs. Orioles’ Cole Irvin)
- Matchup: Cole Irvin at Oriole Park
- Key Stats: High .291 ISO against left-handers
- Why He’s a Top Play:
- Favorable Pitching Matchup: Irvin’s lower strikeout ability and higher ISO allowed (.137) suggest Jeffers could have significant impact plays.
- Potential for Power: Jeffers’ extraordinary power against lefties aligns well against Irvin’s pitching style.
5. Kyle Schwarber – OF, Phillies (vs. Rockies’ Cal Quantrill)
- Matchup: Cal Quantrill at Citizens Bank Park
- Key Stats: High .283 ISO and .367 xwOBA, indicating substantial slugging potential
- Why He’s a Top Play:
- Hitter’s Park: Schwarber’s left-handed power is ideally suited for the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park.
- Exploiting Weaknesses: Quantrill’s struggles, particularly with lefties, make Schwarber a prime candidate for home runs and RBIs today.
Key Insights for Today’s DFS Plays:
- Leveraging Park Factors: Understanding how the ballpark can affect a hitter’s performance is crucial, especially for power hitters in favorable parks.
- Matchup Analysis: Analyzing pitcher-hitter dynamics can reveal less obvious DFS plays who have favorable conditions against specific pitcher types.
- Statistical Approach: Focusing on ISO and xwOBA helps identify hitters with the best chance to produce significant DFS points.
These hitters have been selected based on their advantageous matchups against specific pitchers and their potential to exploit these matchups in today’s games. By focusing on these strategic plays, DFS players can assemble lineups that might outperform the usual suspects on today’s slate.
