If you’re into NBA Prop betting hunting for those top bets, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve scoured the matchups for Wednesday, December 13, 2023, and found some intriguing player prop bets that could give you an edge in daily fantasy basketball. Let’s dive in and break down the key highlights for tonight’s action.
Caleb Martin Over 27.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (+102)
NBA Prop Bets
The Charlotte Hornets are set to clash with the Miami Heat in a rematch of Monday’s showdown, and one player who’s caught our eye is Caleb Martin. He’s posted a 34.0 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) performance recently, and tonight, we’re looking for him to hit just 28.0 PRA.
Now, on the surface, Martin’s season averages might not turn many heads, with 18.9 PRA on roughly 26 minutes of play. But here’s the twist – he had a knee injury that kept him sidelined for 10 games and led to early-season minutes restrictions. That means his overall numbers aren’t entirely reliable.
The Heat are dealing with their own issues, missing key starters like Tyler Herro, Haywood Highsmith, and Bam Adebayo. This has thrust Martin into a starting role, and he’s been thriving. In the four games without Adebayo, he’s averaged 30.25 PRA. In the three games since Adebayo and Highsmith have been out and Martin joined the starting lineup, he’s averaged an impressive 32.7 PRA.
What’s more, Martin is projected to log around 35 minutes against the Hornets, which aligns with his recent starter minutes. In five games this season where he’s played at least 31 minutes, he’s averaged 32.6 PRA.
Now, let’s talk matchup. Charlotte’s defense is leaky, ranking fifth-worst in points allowed, eighth-worst in rebounds given up, and eighth-worst in assists allowed per game. Martin, as a shooting guard for the Heat, should capitalize on this. The Hornets also struggle against shooting guards when it comes to three-pointers, and Martin gets 34.2% of his points from downtown.
Charlotte’s interior defense isn’t much better, surrendering the fifth-most points in the paint per game. This plays into Martin’s hands, as he scores 48.1% of his points in the paint. With only 9.5 combined rebounds and assists (RA) factored into this prop, it’s worth noting that he’s been averaging 10.4 RA over his last five games. This adds another layer of intrigue to his PRA line tonight.
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Trae Young Under 27.5 Points (-104)
While Trae Young is undoubtedly an efficient scorer, we’re leaning towards the under on his 27.5 points prop tonight, and here’s why. Young recently missed a game for the Atlanta Hawks due to a shoulder issue, and although he returned on Monday, he had a modest 19-point outing in just 26 minutes before getting ejected.
Young is probable for tonight’s matchup against the Toronto Raptors, but it’s a matchup that could hinder his scoring. The Raptors boast a formidable defense, especially against point guards. With Dennis Schroder and OG Anunoby in their backcourt, they allow the second-fewest points per game to point guards.
Young’s scoring heavily relies on three-pointers and free throws, accounting for nearly 62% of his points. However, the Raptors give up the sixth-fewest free throw attempts per game and are stingy when it comes to limiting three-pointers by point guards. This defensive setup presents a challenging situation for Young to shine, making the under on his points prop a tempting choice.
Julius Randle Over 34.5 Pts + Reb (-115)
Now, let’s shift our focus to Julius Randle and his player prop of 34.5 points plus rebounds (PR). Randle’s performance tends to soar when Mitchell Robinson is absent from the New York Knicks’ lineup, and that’s the case tonight.
In the Knicks’ recent game without Robinson, Randle exploded for 42.0 combined points and rebounds, showcasing his ability to step up when needed. Last season, in 22 games without Robinson, Randle averaged 36.0 PR and cleared this prop in nearly 70% of those games.
Tonight’s matchup against the Utah Jazz offers Randle a favorable opportunity. The Jazz allow the third-most points to power forwards per game, and they also surrender a significant number of points in the paint, where Randle thrives with 10.5 paint points per game.
While the Jazz have been solid in limiting rebounds this season, they’ve shown a bit of vulnerability in the absence of their lead rebounder, Lauri Markkanen, giving up more boards in recent games. Additionally, Utah has the fifth-worst defensive rating in the league.
Randle has historically performed well against teams with weaker defensive ratings, averaging 35.0 PR in such matchups. This trend, coupled with Utah’s weaknesses, makes us confident in taking the over on Randle’s points and rebounds prop.
