It’s that time of the week again, NBA fans! Wednesday night brings us some thrilling matchups, and we’ve got our eyes on the best bets for the evening. Let’s dive into the action and explore our top NBA DFS plays for tonight.
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Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat
Over 223.5 (-110)
The Charlotte Hornets are set to clash with the Miami Heat once more after Monday’s exciting showdown, which saw Miami grab a 116-114 victory with the over hitting. This matchup has a history of high-scoring affairs, with 5 of the previous 7 head-to-head matchups going over the total.
The Heat are facing this challenge without their top two scorers, Tyler Herro (22.9 PPG) and Bam Adebayo (22.3 PPG). However, in Monday’s game, they showcased their three-point prowess by sinking 15 of 35 attempts (42.9%). Duncan Robinson (five threes) and Kevin Love (four threes) were the catalysts behind this three-point barrage.
On the other side, the Charlotte Hornets boast the second-worst defensive rating in the league. This puts the Heat in a prime position for another strong scoring night, even without Bam and Herro. Charlotte’s defense also allows the 11th-most three-point attempts per game, which sets the stage for Miami’s shooters to shine.
Jimmy Butler, known for his efficiency within 14 feet of the basket, had a stellar performance in Monday’s matchup, tallying 23 points with a 58.3% field goal percentage. Charlotte’s defense, which surrenders the fifth-most points in the paint per game, provides Butler with ample opportunities to excel.
The absence of Bam Adebayo in Miami’s lineup is worth noting, as he is their primary paint defender. While the Heat currently allow the 14th-fewest points in the paint per game, this number could rise without Bam’s presence.
This matchup also favors the Hornets, who generate the sixth-most points in the paint per game. Keep an eye on Gordon Hayward (15.3 PPG) as he consistently attacks the painted area, with 42.4% of his attempts coming from within 10 feet of the basket.
With the over hitting in 4 of the last 6 Heat games and 4 of the last 5 Hornets contests, both offenses have potential advantages heading into Wednesday’s showdown. All signs point to another high-scoring affair, so give me the over.
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Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets
Rockets -6.0 (-112)
The Houston Rockets have been a revelation for bettors this season, boasting a 14-5-1 record against the spread (ATS). They’ve been particularly dominant at home, with an 8-1-1 record ATS. With three consecutive wins and covers under their belt, the Rockets are on fire, and they welcome the struggling Memphis Grizzlies to town on Wednesday.
Houston’s defensive prowess stands out, as they own the second-best defensive rating in the league, allowing only 105.6 PPG (fewest). Opponents have a meager 50.0% effective field goal percentage (eFG%), the second-lowest mark in the league. This sets the stage for a challenging scoring night for the Grizzlies, who rank third-worst in offensive rating, averaging only 106.5 PPG on a 50.8 eFG%.
Despite their subpar three-point shooting percentage, the Grizzlies attempt the sixth-most threes per game. However, the Rockets excel at defending shots from beyond the arc, giving up the third-fewest made three-pointers per night.
Memphis’s defense is no slouch, as they hold the 11th-best defensive rating and give up the fewest points in the paint per game. Jaren Jackson Jr. anchors the interior with a 111.7 defensive rating and 1.8 blocks per game. Nevertheless, the Grizzlies’ perimeter defense is susceptible, allowing the eighth-most three-point attempts per game.
This matchup could be a big opportunity for the Rockets’ guards, led by Fred VanVleet (16.7 PPG) and Jalen Green (18.5 PPG), who both love launching three-pointers.
In summary, Memphis may struggle to find consistent scoring against Houston’s stingy defense. With the Rockets on a hot streak, I’m rolling with them to cover the spread at home.
