The Chicago Bears are in a tough spot. Winless and facing the Washington Commanders in Thursday Night Football, they’re hungry for their first victory in the 2023 season. This matchup may not be a primetime blockbuster, but there’s more beneath the surface to explore. Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET, and you can catch the action on Prime Video.
All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
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The Bears’ Struggles
The Bears’ season has been nothing short of a letdown. They started with high hopes, but after four weeks, they find themselves with a disappointing 0-4 record. Pre-season expectations pegged them with a win total of 7.5 and +172 odds to make the playoffs. However, the reality is far from that. Their win total has plummeted to 4.5, and the odds of making the playoffs have dwindled to a gloomy +1600.
But it’s not just about external stats; internal issues have plagued the team. Drama has unfolded, from the resignation of defensive coordinator Alan Williams to Justin Fields’ comments about the coaching staff and Chase Claypool’s exit from the team. Rumors even swirl about head coach Matt Eberflus’ job security. A win on Thursday won’t erase these issues, but it could buy them some time to regroup.
The Commanders’ Outlook
In contrast, the Commanders have had a relatively better start with a 2-2 record. Despite two losses, they pushed the Philadelphia Eagles, one of the Super Bowl favorites, to overtime on the road. Their win total has risen from 6.5 to 7.5, and playoff odds now stand at +250.
Their wins came against lower-tier teams, the Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals, while their losses were to top-tier teams, the Buffalo Bills and the Eagles. Facing a middle-of-the-pack team like the Bears will be a good litmus test to determine their playoff potential.
Betting Odds and Analysis
Bears at Commanders Week 5 Betting Odds:
- Spread: Commanders -5.5 (-110)
- Total: 44.5
- Moneyline:
- Bears: +198
- Commanders: -240
While the spread suggests that the Commanders are the clear favorites, numberFire’s power rankings reveal that this matchup isn’t as lopsided as it seems. The Commanders are ranked 25th, while the Bears sit at the 31st spot.
Despite their low rankings, this game holds significant stakes for both teams. The Bears, winless so far, have individuals fighting to secure their jobs. A 0-5 record won’t help job security for many. On the other hand, the Commanders have a tough upcoming schedule, making a win against the struggling Bears crucial for their playoff hopes.
Quarterback Battle
Both teams have struggled offensively, with the Commanders having the 27th-ranked offense, and the Bears trailing behind at 30th.
Sam Howell, the Commanders’ quarterback, ranks 18th in Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR). While not a superstar, he has a chance to exploit the Bears’ 31st-ranked pass defense. With offensive targets Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson at his disposal, Howell could make an impact.
Justin Fields, the Bears’ quarterback, has struggled this season, ranking 28th in QBR. Fields’ challenges are not solely his own; the Bears’ receivers have been underwhelming, and their 31st-ranked defense hasn’t helped. Facing the Commanders’ ninth-ranked pass defense won’t make it easier. However, the Bears may find opportunities in the running game against Washington’s 21st-ranked rush defense.
The Over/Under
The over has hit in all of Chicago’s games this year, while it’s been 2-2 for Washington. Despite the Bears’ offensive struggles, the Commanders might capitalize on their weaknesses. Expect some high-scoring action.
Prop Bets
Sam Howell Over 239.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Howell may not be a superstar, but he has the potential to exceed this prop, especially against the Bears’ weak defense. With good performances recently and a supporting cast of talented receivers, he’s in a good position to shine.
Logan Thomas Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Logan Thomas, the Commanders’ tight end, is underrated. He’s expected to get involved in the passing game, and his receiving yards line seems too low. The Bears have struggled against tight ends, making this a favorable prop bet.
Khalil Herbert Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Herbert had a standout game last week, rushing for over 100 yards. Facing a middling rush defense in Washington, he has a good chance to meet or exceed this line. If he gets a significant workload, this bet could pay off.
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