Player props are an excellent way to enhance your NFL betting experience, and Week 4 offers some exciting opportunities. With numberFire’s projections as our guide, let’s dive into three player prop bets that catch the eye for this week’s action.
Please note that betting lines and game projections may change, so be sure to check for updates as game day approaches. Weather conditions can also impact player performance, so keep an eye on that.
T.J. Hockenson Any Time Touchdown (+170)
The Minnesota Vikings’ offense has been firing on all cylinders, making them a team to watch in the prop market. Despite their 0-3 record, the Vikings’ offense is still producing at a high level, making them an appealing choice for touchdown props this week.
As 4.0-point road favorites with a solid 25.25 implied team total, the Vikings are expected to score over three touchdowns. This sets the stage for players like T.J. Hockenson to shine.
Hockenson boasts a 21.1% target share and a 15.4% air yards share, along with playing on 82.1% of the snaps and running a route on 82.8% of drop backs. These numbers indicate his significant role in the offense, second only to Justin Jefferson in target share (27.8%).
In the red zone, Hockenson takes the lead with a 29.2% red zone target share, compared to Jefferson’s 16.7%. This bodes well for Hockenson’s touchdown potential.
While the Carolina Panthers’ defense has allowed 155 yards to opposing tight ends this season without conceding a touchdown, this stat is consistent with 17 other teams in the league. Therefore, it’s not a significant concern. With Hockenson’s clear role and favorable odds, he’s a strong candidate to score a touchdown this week.
C.J. Stroud Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-114)
C.J. Stroud has shown promise in his rookie season, and his passing yards prop appears undervalued this week. The Houston Texans, as 3.0-point home underdogs against the Pittsburgh Steelers, provide a favorable setting for Stroud to shine.
The Texans have showcased a pass-heavy approach, with a 63.77% passing play percentage, ranking seventh-highest in the league. They’ve leaned on Stroud’s arm, resulting in 906 passing yards and 121 attempts through three games, both top-five in the NFL. This equates to an impressive 302.0 passing yards and 40.3 attempts per game.
Houston’s struggles in the rushing game, averaging just 70 rushing yards per game (fifth-lowest in the league), emphasize their reliance on Stroud’s passing abilities.
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense has surrendered 779 passing yards this season, averaging 259 yards per game. This presents a favorable matchup for Stroud to surpass the 235.5 passing yards mark.
It’s uncommon for a team to place such trust in a rookie quarterback to pass frequently, but Stroud and the Texans are bucking the trend. Considering their play-calling tendencies, Stroud’s production, and the matchup, the over on passing yards is a strong play this week.
Mac Jones Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-114)
Mac Jones and the New England Patriots have adopted a different offensive approach compared to last season, creating intriguing prop opportunities. A closer look at the Patriots’ offensive shift reveals a significant increase in plays per game.
In the previous season, the Patriots averaged just 59.2 plays per game, ranking 28th in the league. They played slowly, with an average of 29.6 seconds per play (21st) and a 57.75% passing play percentage (17th). This resulted in Mac Jones averaging 31.5 passing attempts in 14 games played.
This season, the Patriots have flipped the script, averaging a league-leading 72.7 plays per game with a swift 25.0 seconds per play. They’ve also increased their passing play percentage to 60.09% (14th), allowing Jones to accumulate an impressive 41.6 passing attempts per game.
Jones had 54 and 42 passing attempts in the first two weeks, while a low number of plays and an unfavorable game script limited him to 29 attempts in the last game against the New York Jets. However, the Jets rank last in the league in plays per game at 53.3, contributing to the lower attempts.
In Week 4, the Patriots face the Dallas Cowboys, who average 71.0 plays per game, right behind the Patriots at 72.7. As 6.5-point road underdogs, the Patriots are likely to find themselves in a passing game script to keep up with the Cowboys.
This sets the stage for a competitive, back-and-forth contest that should provide Jones with ample opportunities to surpass the 32.5 passing attempts mark.
Remember, player props can add excitement to your NFL betting experience. Make sure to check for updates on betting lines and game conditions as you consider these prop bets for Week 4. Good luck!
