Predicting NBA win totals is one of the hottest topics in sports betting. With odds available for all 30 teams, there are bound to be some terrific wagers up for grabs. In this article, we’ll break down win totals by division, focusing on the Eastern Conference’s Central Division.
The Central Division’s 2022-23 Season
The Central Division showed improvement in the 2022-23 season, with three of its teams making it to the postseason. However, they faced setbacks when it mattered most:
- The Milwaukee Bucks, as the top seed, suffered a shocking first-round upset against the No. 8 Miami Heat, who would later advance to the NBA Finals.
- The Cleveland Cavaliers fell in five games against the New York Knicks, and the memorable quote from Jarrett Allen was, “the lights were brighter than expected.”
- The Chicago Bulls failed to reach the playoffs, losing their second play-in game against the Heat.
Now, the question is, can the Central Division bounce back in the upcoming season? The division consists of the Bucks, Bulls, Cavaliers, Indiana Pacers, and Detroit Pistons. Milwaukee has been in the spotlight after acquiring Damian Lillard in a blockbuster trade:
Following this monumental move, the Bucks are the overwhelming favorites to win the Central Division at -360. But what does this trade mean for Milwaukee’s win total? Let’s take a closer look at the Bucks’ prospects and another promising team led by emerging talents.
Milwaukee Bucks Under 56.5 Wins (-128)
Milwaukee had a disappointing end to their previous season in the division. Despite a remarkable regular season with a record of 58-24, the Bucks, as the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, faltered in the first round of the playoffs. The absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo, a two-time MVP winner, for two games due to a nagging back injury was a significant blow. Antetokounmpo had led the NBA with a 38.4% usage rate that season.
The Bucks, once favorites for the NBA Finals, lost to the Miami Heat in a stunning upset. Criticism fell heavily on coach Mike Budenholzer, resulting in his dismissal. With a new head coach, Adrian Griffin, who had previously served as an assistant with several teams, the Bucks were poised for change. But the acquisition of Damian Lillard shifted the narrative.
Now, Milwaukee is the betting favorite to win the NBA Finals at +360, and expectations are high. According to FanDuel Sportsbook’s NBA win total odds, Milwaukee is projected to have 56.5 wins. However, it’s worth questioning if the Bucks can live up to these lofty expectations.
Lillard is undoubtedly a significant addition, but the Bucks had to part with Jrue Holiday and Grayson Allen. While Lillard brings offensive firepower, we can’t overlook the defensive implications. Lillard’s defensive rating in his previous two seasons was over 120, compared to the league’s average defensive rating of 114.8 last season. Holiday, on the other hand, was an elite defensive guard.
Jrue Holiday also played more games than Lillard in recent seasons. The loss of Holiday cannot be underestimated. Considering these factors, the under seems like the more favorable bet for Milwaukee.
Indiana Pacers Over 38.5 Wins (-110)
While Milwaukee continues to dominate the headlines, don’t overlook the Indiana Pacers. Despite missing the Play-In Tournament last season, the Pacers showed improvement, increasing their win total from 25 to 35. They have a young and promising roster led by players like Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin. Indiana’s win total is set at 38.5.
Haliburton, in particular, had a standout season, earning his first All-Star appearance with averages of 20.7 points and 10.4 assists. Mathurin, a rookie, made a strong impact with 16.7 points per game and finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting. With the addition of first-round rookie Jarace Walker, the Pacers have a bright future.
But it’s not just about offense. The Pacers addressed their defensive woes by drafting Walker, known for his defensive versatility. Indiana finished 23rd in defensive rating last season, and Walker’s presence should make a difference.
The Pacers also strengthened their bench with the addition of Bruce Brown Jr., a player who excelled in bench scoring with the Denver Nuggets last season. With a roster loaded with scoring options, Indiana is on the right path. They are even being considered for the playoffs, with odds of +128 to make the postseason.
Indiana ranked ninth in points per game last season, but their defense could see an improvement with the additions of Walker and Obi Toppin, who brings defensive upside. With 35 wins last season, surpassing their win total of 38.5 seems very attainable.
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In the competitive world of sports betting, the Central Division offers intriguing opportunities. Keep a close eye on the Bucks and Pacers as they embark on their respective journeys in the upcoming NBA season.
