The Detroit Lions will visit Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers for a Thursday Night primetime game.
Though we are still in the aughts of the 2023-2024 NFL season, the outcome of this matchup should have significant bearing on the playoff landscape—at least as the NFC North is concerned. The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. EST and can be streamed on Prime Video.
The Packers were the subject of arguably the most paramount NFL offseason move. After trading Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets, they were left without their venerable, veteran starting quarterback for the first time in 18 years.
Despite the loss of Rodgers, and the fact that new starting quarterback Jordan Love had only started one NFL game prior to this season, The Pack has exceeded expectations thus far, entering the season with a win total line set at 7.5 that has since increased to 9.5.
For the first time since the division was renamed in 2002, the Detroit Lions entered the season as the NFC North favorites. The hype was real after defeating the reigning Super Bowl champ Kansas City Chiefs in their season opener, but expectations have tapered back to reality after splitting the following two games. Even still, the Lions have exceeded preseason projections, coming into the season with -170 odds to make the playoffs that have since increased to -210.
Both teams enter Week 4 with a 2-1 record, and Green Bay owns the tiebreaker since Detroit has yet to play a division rival. Given that the Minnesota Vikings current win total is set at a 6.5, and the Chicago Bears are essentially non-starter, it’s more likely than not that the NFC North becomes a race between Detroit and Green Bay, meaning a vital game is afoot for Thursday.
Lions at Packers Week 4 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline
- Spread: Lions -1.5 (-104)
- Total: 45.5
- Moneyline: Packers: +100 | Lions: -118
Lions at Packers Week 4 Matchup Analysis
Beyond the significance of the divisional nature of the Lions visiting the Packers, this game is also notable in that it is one of the more even-handed matchups we have seen this season.
According to numberFire’s nERD-based power rankings, the Lions are the NFL’s 9th best team while the Packers check in just behind them at 11th. The game lines show it is about as close to a pick-em as we will see in Week 4.
Detroit and Green Bay seem to share almost identical success-spots, neutrals-spots, and weak-spots.
The Packers have the fourth-best passing offense, according to numberFire’s Adjusted Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, while the Lions sit right behind them at fifth. Using this same metric, but for offensive rushing, Detroit comes in with the 22nd-worst rushing offense, while Green Bay has the 24th-worst.
We see the same similarities on the defensive end. Detroit ranks 13th in overall Adjusted Defensive NEP per play while Green Bay comes in at 18th. The Packers have the 11th-best passing defense while the Lions rank 16th in this regard. It’s almost mind-boggling how contiguous these two teams fare in this regard, making it difficult to identify a clear spot where capitalization off of team vulnerabilities is possible. However, there is one uncharted territory that has yet to be mentioned: team rush defensive rating.
The Lions rank 11th on rush defense while the Packers trail far behind at 27th. Green Bay’s struggles against the rush make for a great spot for the Lions to leave their mark on Thursday, but they will need their rush offense to show up.
Starting Detroit running-back David Montgomery is questionable for Thursday’s matchup and has been a limited participant in practice this week. This will likely leave the Lions’ 2023 first round draft pick Jahmyr Gibbs with a heavy workload. Although Gibbs struggled to produce much in his first two NFL games, averaging 29.5 rush yards and forcing Detroit to rely on their passing game, he saw an uptick in play and output in last week’s win against the Atlanta Falcons, rushing for 80 yards on 17 carries. He will need to continue this trend against Green Bay; the offensive onus can’t solely rely on Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
The Packers, meanwhile, could be victims of their own overperformance. Perhaps they really are a team capable of winning 10-plus games, and come Thursday, we will see if they become the NFC North favorites. However, with the status of offensive studs Aaron Jones and Christian Watson up in the air, they come into Thursday short-staffed and are forced to face their stiffest and highest-ranked competition yet.
Despite Jordan Love’s early-success as QB1, Goff is the better quarterback. The Lions signal-caller enters Thursday with a 70.8 quarterback rating (4th in NFL) and 69.9% completion rate (6th) while Love falls short with a 69.2 quarterback ranking (6th) and a dreary 53.1% completion rate (33rd).
Though this is primed to be a sharply-contested, must-watch battle, I do think the Lions have the edge over the Packers. Despite the fact that they will need to win at Lambeau, the injury report favors Detroit, and they have a solid chance to expose Green Bay’s over-exceeding performance.
Lions vs. Packers Prop Bets
All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
- Jayden Reed Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
With offensive weapons Aaron Jones and Christian Watson marked as “questionable” for Thursday’s contest, many uncertainties loom for the Green Bay offense. Though Watson assured that he plans to suit up against the Lions, it’s best to avoid anyone on the injury list when it comes to player props.
Take this past Monday Night Football slate as a cautionary tale. Joe Burrow was listed as “questionable” up until game time. Although he clocked in 259 passing yards, he failed to complete a touchdown pass and was, by no means, the vintage Burrow in which bettors place their stake.
Same goes for Puka Nacua, whose status was up in the air prior to the Los Angeles Rams game and ended up with only 7 targets (as opposed to his 13 and 20 targets in Week 1 and Week 2, respectively). For those reasons, I’m out on Jones and Watson.
Instead, I’m targeting Jayden Reed, who has a desirable receiving yards line total.
Reed has hit the over for this line in all three outings this season and is averaging 49.3 receiving yards per game. Though the Packers’ rookie has only seen an average of a 59.4% snap percentage thus far, he has managed to lead the team in target market share (21.2%; tied with Romeo Doubs) and air yards market share (25.1%; tied with Doubs). His importance to the Green Bay offense is evidenced by his 2.3 red zone target average (leads the team).
Further, his average depth of target (aDOT) sits at 12.4 yards (second behind Doubs’ 12.6), and he is receiving 6.7 targets per game.
Even if Reed’s target shares take a punch with the potential return of Watson, he is still primed to hit the over for this receiving line. numberFire’s projections forecast Reed to record 49.6 receiving yards on Thursday even while under the assumption that Watson suits up for the game.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Choosing Amon-Ra St. Brown to perform well isn’t the most original take, but the numbers prove that this line is set too low.
Despite facing a toe injury and being listed as questionable for last week’s game against the Falcons, St. Brown has managed to average 91.6 receiving yards and 9.3 targets per game thus far.
He leads the Lions in just about every key offensive category: snap percentage (87.2%), target market share (28.9%), air yard market share (30.8%), and red zone target market share (57.1%). There’s no reason why these numbers should decrease come Thursday.
Though the Packers fall in the middle of the pack in pass defense rating, they have yet to face a team with a top-15 pass offense, and Lions are 5th. That means the Goff to St. Brown connection shouldn’t be too difficult to materialize.
While other receivers on the Lions depth chart, such as Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond, have had their moments, St. Brown is in a different stratosphere and will look to continue his dominant target market share percentage.
numberFire’s projections predict St. Brown to rake in 80.64 receiving yards against the Packers, leaving a decent chunk of wiggle room with the set line.
- Jared Goff Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Now that we’ve established that this game is primed for a decent Goff to St. Brown connection, I’d also look for Goff to exceed his total passing yards line.
He averaged 261.1 passing yards per game last season and has come out hot in his third season for the Lions.
Detroit’s signal-caller is averaging 273 passing yards per game and throws the ball for 8.0 yards per attempt (second in NFL). Meanwhile, the Packers allow a 68% completion rate (fourth-highest) and have yet to face a quarterback ranked as high as Goff.
Goff has faced two top-10 passing defenses (the Falcons and Chiefs) in three games this season, and while Green Bay’s D won’t be a cake-walk, it’s nothing the Lions quarterback hasn’t seen before.
numberFire’s projections anticipate Goff to throw for 253.24 yards on Thursday night. This, paired with the decent game total and projected close-natured affair of this game, should mean that Goff gets plenty of pass attempts against The Pack.
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