Player props are a gold mine for savvy sports bettors. They not only offer exciting opportunities but also a chance to apply your knowledge of the game. In this article, we’ll delve into three NFL player prop bets for Thursday Night Football in Week 3. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting, these picks are worth considering for your betting strategy.
George Kittle Any Time Touchdown (+190)
Thursday Night Football lights up as the San Francisco 49ers take on the New York Giants. The 49ers are riding high as healthy 10.0-point favorites, with the over/under set at 44.0 points. This implies a robust 27.0-point performance from the 49ers.
- Why George Kittle?: Kittle boasts a 17.3% target share, 11.3% air yards share, and a 16.7% red zone target share. He’s on the field for 80.8% of the snaps and runs routes on 72.4% of dropbacks. While these numbers seem modest, they’re likely to rise as the season progresses.
- Historical Clues: Last season, when Brock Purdy took over as the starting quarterback, Kittle had a 19.9% target share and an impressive 27.6% red zone target share. His red zone prowess rivals that of the elite Christian McCaffrey.
- Giants’ Defense: The Giants’ defense has been middling against tight ends this season, allowing 99 yards and no touchdowns. However, they haven’t faced a tight end of Kittle’s caliber.
George Kittle is a trusted red zone target for the 49ers, making him a prime candidate for an anytime touchdown in this favorable matchup.
Darren Waller Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Darren Waller takes the stage for the Giants in what promises to be an exciting matchup. The Giants are 10.0-point underdogs, setting the stage for a passing game script.
- Why Darren Waller?: Waller commands a substantial 20.3% target share, even with Saquon Barkley in the mix. With Barkley potentially sidelined, Waller’s target share could rise, making him a top choice for Daniel Jones.
- The Importance of aDOT: Waller’s 8.6 average depth of target (aDOT) is a key factor. It aligns with the expected game flow, where the 49ers’ defense will apply significant pressure on Daniel Jones. This will force quick releases and shorter passes, with Waller ideally positioned for easy completions.
The 49ers’ defense is known for relentless pressure, allowing a mere 6.9 aDOT from opposing quarterbacks this season. This sets the stage for Darren Waller to shine, especially if Barkley is absent.
Parris Campbell Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Parris Campbell, the Giants’ third-string wide receiver, faces an uphill battle in this passing-heavy game script.
- Why Parris Campbell?: Campbell has a meager 15.6% target share and a paltry 3.7 average depth of target (aDOT). He’s on the field for 65.9% of snaps but primarily operates in situations that don’t favor racking up yards.
numberFire’s projections have Campbell falling just short of the 29.5 receiving yards mark, making the under a viable option.
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Incorporating these player prop bets into your NFL betting strategy can add excitement and potential profits to your Thursday Night Football experience. Remember to check the latest odds and projections as they may change throughout the day. Good luck and happy betting!
