Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Week 1
The NFL is finally back, and the Week 1 main slate on FanDuel is packed with exciting matchups. As we gear up for the season opener, it’s essential to stay informed about the latest trends and insights. In this article, we’ll delve into the best daily fantasy football plays for Week 1 on FanDuel, accounting for player salaries and matchup analysis.
Slate Overview
Before diving into specific player recommendations, let’s get a snapshot of the Week 1 matchups. We’ll consider opponent, implied team total, spread, over/under, and defensive ranks based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds and numberFire’s Net Expected Points (NEP) model.
| Team | Opponent | Implied Total | Spread | Over/Under | Opp D Rank | Opp Pass D Rank | Opp Rush D Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | HOU | 26.75 | -10.0 | 43.5 | 26 | 17 | 23 |
| LAC | MIA | 26.75 | -3.0 | 50.5 | 19 | 17 | 16 |
| MIN | TB | 25.75 | -6.0 | 45.5 | 6 | 12 | 5 |
| SEA | LA | 25.5 | -5.5 | 45.5 | 15 | 22 | 18 |
| CIN | @CLE | 25 | -2.5 | 47.5 | 24 | 12 | 25 |
| JAC | @IND | 25 | -4.5 | 45.5 | 19 | 24 | 13 |
| PHI | @NE | 24.5 | -4.0 | 45.0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| DEN | LV | 24 | -4.0 | 44.0 | 31 | 31 | 23 |
| MIA | @LAC | 23.75 | 3.0 | 50.5 | 24 | 10 | 31 |
| WSH | ARI | 22.75 | -7.0 | 38.5 | 19 | 21 | 21 |
| CHI | GB | 22.5 | -1.5 | 43.5 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
| CLE | CIN | 22.5 | 2.5 | 47.5 | 8 | 9 | 13 |
| NO | TEN | 22.25 | -3.0 | 41.5 | 13 | 26 | 3 |
| SF | @PIT | 21.5 | -2.5 | 40.5 | 13 | 24 | 10 |
| ATL | CAR | 21.5 | -3.5 | 39.5 | 15 | 22 | 11 |
| GB | @CHI | 21 | 1.5 | 43.5 | 30 | 30 | 27 |
| NE | PHI | 20.5 | 4.0 | 45.0 | 10 | 1 | 29 |
| IND | JAC | 20.5 | 4.5 | 45.5 | 15 | 26 | 8 |
| LV | @DEN | 20 | 4.0 | 44.0 | 8 | 7 | 17 |
| LA | @SEA | 20 | 5.5 | 45.5 | 26 | 17 | 26 |
| TB | @MIN | 19.75 | 6.0 | 45.5 | 19 | 28 | 13 |
| TEN | @NO | 19.25 | 3.0 | 41.5 | 11 | 6 | 18 |
| PIT | SF | 19 | 2.5 | 40.5 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| CAR | @ATL | 18 | 3.5 | 39.5 | 29 | 32 | 21 |
| HOU | @BAL | 16.75 | 10.0 | 43.5 | 11 | 16 | 5 |
| ARI | @WSH | 15.75 | 7.0 | 38.5 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
FanDuel Salary: $8,100 Opponent: Dolphins
Justin Herbert stands out with a slate-high implied team total of 26.75 points against the Miami Dolphins. The matchup suggests a high-scoring game, perfect for fantasy production. Herbert is a prime candidate for touchdown regression in the 2023 NFL season, starting as early as Week 1. In games against below-average pass defenses last season, he averaged 290.0 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. With Miami’s vulnerability to downfield passes, Herbert could have a breakout performance.
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Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
FanDuel Salary: $6,700 Opponent: Jaguars
Anthony Richardson offers value at a sub-$7,000 salary in a promising matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars’ high-pressure defense should keep Richardson on the move, and numberFire’s model projects him for substantial rushing attempts and yards. Richardson’s dual-threat capability makes him an intriguing option for Week 1.
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Others to Consider
- Lamar Jackson ($8,900 vs. HOU) – Elite implied team total and rushing potential.
- Joe Burrow ($7,900 at CLE) – A strong game despite a calf injury.
- Geno Smith ($7,200 vs. LAR) – Benefitting from a low-pressure opponent.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
FanDuel Salary: $7,800 Opponent: Panthers
Bijan Robinson faces a challenging on-paper matchup against the Carolina Panthers. While the Panthers excelled in rushing success rate allowed to running backs last season, they struggled with yards over expectation. Robinson’s explosiveness and potential for big plays make him a worthwhile pick for Week 1.
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Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
FanDuel Salary: $7,500 Opponent: Browns
Joe Mixon returns as the lead back for the Bengals, and he’s set to start the season strong. With a favorable matchup against the Browns, Mixon’s snap rate should improve, and he could replicate his early-season success from last year. A healthy Mixon is poised to deliver in Week 1.
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J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
FanDuel Salary: $6,500 Opponent: Texans
J.K. Dobbins presents an opportunity to access the Baltimore Ravens’ offense in Week 1. Facing the Texans’ defense, Dobbins could see significant late-game carries if the spread plays out as expected. Despite the Ravens’ preference for distributing carries, Dobbins has a favorable matchup that could lead to multiple scores.
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Others to Consider
- Austin Ekeler ($9,000 vs. MIA) – Upside in a high-scoring game.
- Alexander Mattison ($7,300 vs. TB) – A reliable workload in a positive script.
- Raheem Mostert ($5,900 at LAC) – Benefitting from a favorable rushing matchup.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
FanDuel Salary: $8,500 Opponent: Browns
Ja’Marr Chase offers great value in a high-scoring game against the Browns. With a lower salary than Justin Jefferson, Chase’s potential is immense. In games where both he and Tee Higgins played at least half of the team’s snaps in 2022, Chase saw significant targets and excelled in downfield and red zone opportunities. He also had a memorable performance against the Browns last year, making him an attractive pick for Week 1.
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Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
FanDuel Salary: $7,000 Opponent: Colts
Calvin Ridley’s debut with the Jaguars in an indoor environment against the Colts bodes well for fantasy production. Ridley is expected to see ample targets, making him an appealing option for Week 1. With a top-five implied team total, Ridley has the potential to shine in his new team.
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Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
FanDuel Salary: $6,800 Opponent: Rams
Tyler Lockett’s prospects are promising, especially with Jaxon Smith-Njigba recovering from wrist surgery. Lockett had an impressive performance against the Rams last year, and his volume projection should be substantial in the Seahawks’ opening matchup. At a reasonable salary, Lockett is an intriguing choice for Week 1.
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Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
FanDuel Salary: $5,900 Opponent: Raiders
Courtland Sutton, with Russell Wilson under center, has the potential for a strong start to the season. With Jerry Jeudy’s status uncertain, Sutton could see increased targets. In 2022, Sutton performed well without Jeudy on the field, showcasing his ability to be a top target in the Broncos’ offense.
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Others to Consider
- Justin Jefferson ($9,500 vs. TB) – A game-changing player worth the salary.
- Chris Olave ($7,300 vs. TEN) – The team’s WR1 with a strong quarterback.
- Amari Cooper ($6,700 vs. CIN) – A significant target share after Deshaun Watson’s debut.
- Marvin Mims ($4,700 vs. LV) – Potential for extra volume with Jeudy’s injury.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
FanDuel Salary: $8,000 Opponent: Texans
Mark Andrews is a solid choice at tight end, especially when paired with Lamar Jackson. Andrews had an impressive target share last season, and he should continue to be a key target for Jackson. Facing the Texans, who struggled against tight ends last year, Andrews has a favorable matchup.
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Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
FanDuel Salary: $5,300 Opponent: Seahawks
Tyler Higbee’s salary provides flexibility for lineups not centered on elite tight ends. With Cooper Kupp ruled out, Higbee is poised to see more targets. In games without Kupp last season, Higbee had a notable target share, making him a valuable option for Week 1.
Others to Consider
- Evan Engram ($5,800 at IND) – A reliable tight end in an indoor environment.
- Luke Musgrave ($4,500 at CHI) – A budget-friendly option with potential volume.
Defenses
Washington Commanders
FanDuel Salary: $4,900 Opponent: Cardinals
The Washington Commanders offer a safe defensive choice for Week 1. Facing the Arizona Cardinals with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback, Washington’s strong defense is poised for success. Washington excelled in pressuring opponents and boasts an impressive pass defense.
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Green Bay Packers
FanDuel Salary: $4,100 Opponent: Bears
The Green Bay Packers have a favorable matchup against the Bears. Sacks and interceptions are critical for fantasy defenses, and the Packers could benefit from Justin Fields’ high sack rate and interception susceptibility. In Week 1, the Packers present a solid value option.
Others to Consider
- Seattle Seahawks ($4,200 vs. LAR) – Favored at home with Kupp out.
- Cincinnati Bengals ($3,900 at CLE) – Potential for defensive volume in high-scoring games.
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